Pistons vs Wizards prediction
Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards, Thursday, November 12, 2026 · Capital One Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pistons 117, Wizards 112.
Final: DET 144–140. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pistons 117, Wizards 112 (the Pistons won 74% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pistons won 74% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cade Cunningham Pistons 25 pts · 7 reb · 6 ast
- Duncan Robinson Pistons 23 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
- Anthony Davis Wizards 26 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
- Kyshawn George Wizards 20 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 23 | 30 | 29 | 35 | 117 |
| WSH | 27 | 39 | 25 | 21 | 112 |
Top scorers: Anthony Davis 26, Cade Cunningham 25, Duncan Robinson 23, Kyshawn George 20, AJ Dybantsa 15, Elijah Harkless 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 36 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 10-18 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Duncan Robinson | 28 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 7-12 | 5-10 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| John Collins | 28 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ausar Thompson | 24 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Paul Reed | 24 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 7-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Taurean Prince | 34 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 6-14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 22 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Huerter | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Elijah Harkless | 19 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Javonte Green | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 33 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 11-28 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Trae Young | 32 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 32 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Kyshawn George | 31 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 8-17 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Alex Sarr | 26 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Gill | 30 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 26 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Johnson | 24 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Bub Carrington | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Wizards are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Pistons: Cunningham 30 · Prince 29 · Robinson 28 · Jenkins 28 · Harkless 26 · Huerter 25 · Thompson 25 · Collins 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Joe
Wizards: Young 33 · Johnson 33 · George 32 · Davis 32 · Dybantsa 31 · Sarr 24 · Coulibaly 24 · Gill 23 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Pistons take 38% of their shots from deep (4th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Wizards give up 41% of shots from three (9th-fewest).
Second chances. Pistons grab 28% of their misses (10th-most). Wizards let opponents get 29% (3rd-most).
Ball security. Pistons turn it over on 14% of possessions (13th of 30). Wizards force turnovers on 14% (4th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring in 40% of sims.
Reed posts a double-double in 28%.
Robinson hits 5+ threes in 23%.
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 48% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 51%.
What swings it
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Pistons (29% of sims), they win 41%, up from 26%.
When Pistons hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 89%, up from 74%.
When Wizards hit 11+ threes (34% of sims), they win 40%, up from 26%.
Reality check
Pistons score 115.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.7 against this defense.
Wizards score 108.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 104.6 against this defense.
Cunningham: 20.3 pts · 5.2 reb · 8.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.2 · 5.2 · 7.1.
Robinson: 17.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.8 · 1.9 · 2.2.
Davis: 24.3 pts · 10.6 reb · 2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.2 · 10.2 · 1.4.
George: 18.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.2 · 4.6 · 4.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pistons win 74% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Cade Cunningham20+ pts + ast81%of sims92Our Rating
- Cade Cunningham15+ pts + reb89%of sims91Our Rating
- Cade Cunningham7+ ast57%of sims88Our Rating
- Cade Cunningham25+ pts + reb + ast78%of sims88Our Rating
- Cade Cunningham3+ reb82%of sims87Our Rating
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.