Pistons vs Knicks prediction
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · Madison Square Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pistons 113, Knicks 111.
Final: NY 111–97. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pistons 113, Knicks 111 (the Pistons won 53% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pistons won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Daniss Jenkins Pistons 22 pts · 6 reb · 7 ast
- Duncan Robinson Pistons 22 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- OG Anunoby Knicks 21 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 19 pts · 9 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 25 | 31 | 33 | 24 | 113 |
| NY | 18 | 24 | 31 | 38 | 111 |
Top scorers: Daniss Jenkins 22, Duncan Robinson 22, OG Anunoby 21, Karl-Anthony Towns 19, Jordan Clarkson 19, Kevin Huerter 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson | 34 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 7-15 | 6-12 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Ausar Thompson | 29 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Elijah Harkless | 26 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| John Collins | 25 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade Cunningham | 18 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 37 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Kevin Huerter | 25 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 6-12 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Paul Reed | 21 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Taurean Prince | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Javonte Green | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | 43 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Mikal Bridges | 36 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Jalen Brunson | 34 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| OG Anunoby | 28 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 6-11 | 3-5 | 6-8 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 26 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 8-12 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Landry Shamet | 18 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Miles McBride | 17 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mohamed Diawara | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Pistons: Harkless 29 · Prince 28 · Jenkins 28 · Cunningham 28 · Robinson 27 · Thompson 26 · Collins 26 · Huerter 25 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Joe
Knicks: Brunson 35 · Anunoby 34 · Hart 33 · Bridges 32 · Towns 30 · Shamet 24 · McBride 19 · Drummond 16 (projected minutes). Out: Jose Alvarado
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Knicks finish 66% at the basket (9th-worst; 29% of their shots). Pistons allow 64% there (3rd-lowest) and block shots 23% more often than average.
From three. Knicks take 43% of their shots from deep (12th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Pistons give up 43% of shots from three (8th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring in 22% of sims.
Cunningham posts a double-double in 24%.
Robinson hits 5+ threes in 18%.
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 53% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 58%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 9%.
What swings it
When Knicks hit 16+ threes (29% of sims), they win 69%, up from 47%.
When Pistons hit 16+ threes (29% of sims), they win 74%, up from 53%.
When Pistons commit fewer turnovers than Knicks (45% of sims), they win 66%, up from 53%.
Reality check
Pistons score 119.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.6 against this defense.
Knicks score 110.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.2 against this defense.
Cunningham: 17.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 9.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.3 · 4.3 · 7.4.
Robinson: 15.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.3 · 2.4 · 2.2.
Brunson: 24.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.5 · 2.6 · 6.3.
Towns: 19.9 pts · 11.7 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.9 · 11.7 · 3.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pistons win 53% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Daniss Jenkins10+ pts + reb85%of sims65%books imply
- Daniss Jenkins9+ pts75%of sims55%books imply
- Daniss Jenkins5+ reb + ast87%of sims70%books imply
- Daniss Jenkins2+ reb87%of sims69%books imply
- Kevin Huerter10+ pts54%of sims38%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.