Pistons vs Heat prediction
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Kaseya Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pistons 116, Heat 106.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pistons won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cade Cunningham Pistons 22 pts · 7 reb · 11 ast
- Elijah Harkless Pistons 16 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 22 pts · 15 reb · 6 ast
- Davion Mitchell Heat 21 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 30 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 116 |
| MIA | 25 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 106 |
Top scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo 22, Cade Cunningham 22, Davion Mitchell 21, Elijah Harkless 16, Pelle Larsson 16, John Collins 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson | 34 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 5-10 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Cade Cunningham | 32 | 22 | 7 | 11 | 9-14 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ausar Thompson | 31 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| John Collins | 26 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Paul Reed | 17 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Harkless | 38 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 5-15 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Taurean Prince | 25 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Huerter | 19 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 37 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 5-14 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Davion Mitchell | 35 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 27 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 26 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 8-16 | 0-3 | 6-12 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Klay Thompson | 22 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pelle Larsson | 31 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Bobby Portis | 24 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 24 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Richards | 11 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Conwell | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Pistons: Cunningham 32 · Jenkins 30 · Robinson 29 · Prince 29 · Thompson 27 · Harkless 26 · Reed 26 · Collins 25 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Joe
Heat: Mitchell 34 · Larsson 32 · Adebayo 31 · Antetokounmpo 31 · Wiggins 25 · Thompson 22 · Portis 22 · Hardaway 18 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Heat get out in transition 4th-most in the NBA. Pistons allow 11th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Heat finish 67% at the basket (13th of 30; 27% of their shots). Pistons allow 65% there (7th-lowest) and block shots 21% more often than average.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring in 49% of sims.
Cunningham posts a double-double in 29%.
Robinson hits 5+ threes in 28%.
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 64% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 62%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 17%.
What swings it
When Heat hit 14+ threes (31% of sims), they win 54%, up from 36%.
When Pistons hit 16+ threes (32% of sims), they win 82%, up from 64%.
When Heat commit fewer turnovers than Pistons (42% of sims), they win 51%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Pistons score 117.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.8 against this defense.
Heat score 120.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112 against this defense.
Cunningham: 23.5 pts · 5.4 reb · 8.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.9 · 5.2 · 7.6.
Robinson: 17.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 1.9 · 2.2.
Antetokounmpo: 28.5 pts · 12.3 reb · 4.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.8 · 11.4 · 4.
Adebayo: 19.4 pts · 8.8 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 8.2 · 3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pistons win 64% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DET −4.5): the Pistons cover in 54%.
Total 228.5: over in 52%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Cade Cunningham20+ pts + ast87%of sims93Our Rating
- Klay Thompson1+ threes90%of sims90Our Rating
- Cade Cunningham7+ ast63%of sims89Our Rating84%books imply
- Cade Cunningham25+ pts + reb + ast83%of sims89Our Rating
- Cade Cunningham10+ reb + ast76%of sims89Our Rating92%books imply
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.