Pistons vs Heat prediction
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, Friday, October 23, 2026 · Kaseya Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pistons 120, Heat 115.
Final: DET 128–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pistons 120, Heat 115 (the Pistons won 62% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pistons won 62% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cade Cunningham Pistons 25 pts · 5 reb · 12 ast
- Duncan Robinson Pistons 21 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Bam Adebayo Heat 38 pts · 12 reb · 3 ast
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 30 pts · 15 reb · 8 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 34 | 26 | 37 | 23 | 120 |
| MIA | 24 | 23 | 35 | 33 | 115 |
Top scorers: Bam Adebayo 38, Giannis Antetokounmpo 30, Cade Cunningham 25, Duncan Robinson 21, Ausar Thompson 20, Daniss Jenkins 18
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.