Pelicans vs Warriors prediction
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, Monday, November 9, 2026 · Chase Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Warriors 115, Pelicans 109.
Final: GS 138–87. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Warriors 115, Pelicans 109 (the Warriors won 60% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Warriors won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Julian Reese Pelicans 23 pts · 12 reb · 0 ast
- Jeremiah Fears Pelicans 20 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Yaxel Lendeborg Warriors 29 pts · 10 reb · 1 ast
- Stephen Curry Warriors 21 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 27 | 27 | 23 | 32 | 109 |
| GS | 30 | 37 | 24 | 24 | 115 |
Top scorers: Yaxel Lendeborg 29, Julian Reese 23, Stephen Curry 21, Jeremiah Fears 20, Jordan Poole 16, Saddiq Bey 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Reese | 44 | 23 | 12 | 0 | 10-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 31 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 9-17 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Dejounte Murray | 28 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4-14 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Herbert Jones | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Saddiq Bey | 26 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poole | 22 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 5-13 | 3-10 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Derik Queen | 17 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryce McGowens | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 31 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Curry | 31 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 30 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 9-20 | 3-9 | 8-12 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Draymond Green | 24 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Gui Santos | 21 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Charles Bassey | 26 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 20 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Georges Niang | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Al Horford | 19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Pelicans are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Pelicans: Bey 30 · Murray 30 · Fears 29 · Queen 27 · Reese 24 · Jones 20 · Poole 19 · Matkovic 18 (projected minutes). Out: Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Yves Missi, Trendon Watford
Warriors: Lendeborg 30 · Podziemski 30 · Curry 27 · Green 26 · Melton 24 · Niang 23 · Santos 22 · Williams 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis, Will Richard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Warriors take 48% of their shots from deep (2nd-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Pelicans give up 44% of shots from three (5th-most).
In transition. Pelicans get out in transition 5th-most in the NBA. Warriors allow 5th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Warriors finish 69% at the basket (2nd-best; 26% of their shots). Pelicans allow 68% there (9th-highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Fears leads the Pelicans in scoring in 28% of sims.
Queen posts a double-double in 25%.
Curry leads the Warriors in scoring in 47% of sims.
Lendeborg posts a double-double in 17%.
Curry hits 5+ threes in 30%.
What swings it
When Pelicans hit 11+ threes (37% of sims), they win 56%, up from 40%.
When Warriors hit 16+ threes (37% of sims), they win 77%, up from 60%.
When Pelicans commit fewer turnovers than Warriors (46% of sims), they win 55%, up from 40%.
Reality check
Pelicans score 121.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.9 against this defense.
Warriors score 116.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.1 against this defense.
Fears: 19.2 pts · 5 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.8 · 4.1 · 4.
Bey: 17.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.3 · 3.5 · 2.3.
Curry: 27.6 pts · 4 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.4 · 3.5 · 3.3.
Lendeborg: 21.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 4 ast over his last 10. In the sims: 19.2 · 6.5 · 3.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Warriors win 60% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (GS −11.5): the Warriors cover in 33%.
Total 228.5: over in 56%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Brandon Williams12+ pts57%of sims38%books imply
- Brandon Williams15+ pts + ast54%of sims37%books imply
- Brandon Williams15+ pts + reb52%of sims36%books imply
- De'Anthony Melton4+ reb52%of sims42%books imply
- Derik Queen14+ pts53%of sims45%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.