Pelicans vs Clippers prediction
New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Intuit Dome. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pelicans 121, Clippers 108.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pelicans won 56% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jeremiah Fears Pelicans 24 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
- Zion Williamson Pelicans 22 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
- Darius Garland Clippers 24 pts · 1 reb · 6 ast
- Rui Hachimura Clippers 16 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 31 | 29 | 24 | 37 | 121 |
| LAC | 29 | 30 | 25 | 24 | 108 |
Top scorers: Jeremiah Fears 24, Darius Garland 24, Zion Williamson 22, Trey Murphy III 17, Rui Hachimura 16, Julian Reese 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | 36 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Julian Reese | 36 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Trey Murphy III | 33 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 6-10 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Zion Williamson | 33 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 30 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 9-15 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Saddiq Bey | 28 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Derik Queen | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Poole | 9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | 37 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 8-14 | 3-7 | 5-7 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kris Dunn | 29 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Rui Hachimura | 24 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 24 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Brook Lopez | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kobe Sanders | 34 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Max Strus | 22 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Wagler | 22 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 5-14 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 19 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gradey Dick | 13 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Pelicans: Murphy 32 · Bey 32 · Williamson 31 · Murray 30 · Fears 30 · Queen 29 · Reese 27 · Matkovic 21 (projected minutes). Out: Yves Missi
Clippers: Garland 31 · Hachimura 28 · Dunn 28 · Strus 27 · Wagler 26 · Jones 26 · Sanders 26 · Lopez 24 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Bradley Beal
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Pelicans take 36% of their shots from deep (the fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Clippers give up 41% of shots from three (9th-fewest).
In transition. Pelicans get out in transition 6th-most in the NBA. Clippers allow 7th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Clippers turn it over on 16% of possessions (2nd-most). Pelicans force turnovers on 15% (20th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Fears leads the Pelicans in scoring in 25% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 32%.
Garland leads the Clippers in scoring in 43% of sims.
Garland hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Clippers hit 16+ threes (36% of sims), they win 62%, up from 44%.
When Clippers commit fewer turnovers than Pelicans (37% of sims), they win 62%, up from 44%.
When Pelicans hit 11+ threes (29% of sims), they win 73%, up from 56%.
Reality check
Pelicans score 120.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.8 against this defense.
Clippers score 110.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.9 against this defense.
Fears: 20.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.9 · 4.2 · 4.1.
Williamson: 19.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.8 · 4.5 · 2.7.
Garland: 19.8 pts · 2 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.1 · 1.9 · 6.2.
Hachimura: 14.6 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.1 · 5 · 1.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pelicans win 56% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NO −1.5): the Pelicans cover in 54%.
Total 230.5: over in 50%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.