Pacers vs Mavericks prediction
Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks, Monday, November 9, 2026 · American Airlines Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Mavericks 118, Pacers 112.
Final: DAL 125–122. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Mavericks 118, Pacers 112 (the Mavericks won 58% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Mavericks won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 23 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Aaron Nesmith Pacers 19 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 31 pts · 6 reb · 8 ast
- Santi Aldama Mavericks 15 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 24 | 30 | 22 | 36 | 112 |
| DAL | 37 | 25 | 30 | 26 | 118 |
Top scorers: Cooper Flagg 31, Pascal Siakam 23, Aaron Nesmith 19, Ivica Zubac 17, Santi Aldama 15, Moussa Cisse 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 35 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 7-17 | 2-4 | 7-10 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 31 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 28 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 7-13 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Ivica Zubac | 25 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobe Brown | 27 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarace Walker | 23 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Obi Toppin | 23 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Quenton Jackson | 20 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| T.J. McConnell | 17 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 40 | 31 | 6 | 8 | 11-22 | 1-4 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| P.J. Washington | 25 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyrie Irving | 25 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Daniel Gafford | 24 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Max Christie | 15 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Santi Aldama | 33 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Naji Marshall | 24 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 23 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Moussa Cisse | 18 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Mavericks are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Pacers: Nembhard 32 · Siakam 30 · Walker 26 · Nesmith 26 · Jackson 25 · Toppin 24 · Zubac 23 · Brown 23 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard
Mavericks: Washington 31 · Flagg 29 · Irving 28 · Aldama 28 · Risacher 27 · Marshall 25 · Christie 21 · Gafford 21 (projected minutes). Out: Morez Johnson Jr., Dereck Lively II
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Mavericks take 38% of their shots from deep (5th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Pacers give up 40% of shots from three (3rd-fewest).
In transition. Pacers get out in transition 12th of 30 in the NBA. Mavericks allow the most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 44% of sims.
Zubac posts a double-double in 22%.
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 40% of sims.
Flagg posts a double-double in 21%.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 11%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 13+ threes (30% of sims), they win 61%, up from 42%.
When Mavericks hit 13+ threes (32% of sims), they win 74%, up from 58%.
When Pacers commit fewer turnovers than Mavericks (46% of sims), they win 56%, up from 42%.
Reality check
Pacers score 110.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.7 against this defense.
Mavericks score 116.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.7 against this defense.
Siakam: 23.2 pts · 6.8 reb · 4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 5.9 · 3.2.
Nembhard: 16.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.9 · 2.1 · 6.9.
Flagg: 22.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.3 · 5.8 · 6.
Irving: 21.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast over his last 8. In the sims: 18.8 · 3.2 · 3.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Mavericks win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Santi Aldama4+ reb76%of sims57%books imply
- Naji Marshall15+ pts + ast62%of sims46%books imply
- Naji Marshall13+ pts51%of sims34%books imply
- Santi Aldama5+ pts90%of sims76%books imply
- Obi Toppin12+ pts63%of sims53%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.