Pacers vs Grizzlies prediction
Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · FedExForum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Grizzlies 121, Pacers 103.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Grizzlies won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 23 pts · 9 reb · 4 ast
- Kelly Oubre Jr. Pacers 14 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 34 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper Grizzlies 14 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 21 | 21 | 29 | 32 | 103 |
| MEM | 31 | 30 | 28 | 32 | 121 |
Top scorers: Ty Jerome 34, Pascal Siakam 23, Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14, Kelly Oubre Jr. 14, Jaylen Wells 13, Kobe Brown 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 31 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 9-21 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 29 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 28 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Kobe Brown | 23 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Slawson | 27 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jarace Walker | 23 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jay Huff | 20 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Quenton Jackson | 17 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Braden Smith | 16 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 32 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Zach Edey | 31 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Ty Jerome | 29 | 34 | 3 | 4 | 14-24 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Cedric Coward | 28 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wells | 23 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerami Grant | 36 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Cam Spencer | 19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Small | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 15 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| GG Jackson | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Pacers: Nembhard 31 · Siakam 29 · Jackson 28 · Nesmith 25 · Slawson 25 · Brown 24 · Oubre 24 · Walker 23 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Obi Toppin
Grizzlies: Grant 32 · Boozer 30 · Jerome 27 · Spencer 26 · Coward 25 · Wells 25 · Edey 24 · Small 23 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Grizzlies finish 65% at the basket (6th-worst; 26% of their shots). Pacers allow 66% there (20th of 30).
Second chances. Pacers grab 24% of their misses (the fewest). Grizzlies let opponents get 27% (11th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 49% of sims.
Siakam posts a double-double in 26%.
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 45% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 36%.
Jerome hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 15+ threes (31% of sims), they win 56%, up from 36%.
When Grizzlies hit 15+ threes (37% of sims), they win 81%, up from 64%.
When Pacers commit fewer turnovers than Grizzlies (43% of sims), they win 50%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Pacers score 113.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.2 against this defense.
Grizzlies score 116.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.2 against this defense.
Siakam: 22.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22 · 7.5 · 3.2.
Nembhard: 16.6 pts · 2.7 reb · 9.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16 · 2.7 · 7.8.
Jerome: 24.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21 · 2.8 · 4.5.
Boozer: 17.4 pts · 10.3 reb · 5.6 ast over his last 7. In the sims: 15.7 · 9 · 4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Grizzlies win 64% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.