Pacers vs Bucks prediction
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, Monday, October 26, 2026 · Fiserv Forum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Bucks 119, Pacers 116.
Final: MIL 110–102. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Bucks 119, Pacers 116 (the Bucks won 55% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Bucks won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Aaron Nesmith Pacers 20 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Tyrese Haliburton Pacers 18 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Bucks 21 pts · 3 reb · 6 ast
- Tyler Herro Bucks 19 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 25 | 34 | 32 | 25 | 116 |
| MIL | 27 | 39 | 28 | 25 | 119 |
Top scorers: Jaime Jaquez Jr. 21, Aaron Nesmith 20, Tyler Herro 19, Tyrese Haliburton 18, Pascal Siakam 18, Jericho Sims 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarace Walker | 29 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pascal Siakam | 28 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 7-18 | 1-5 | 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Kobe Brown | 28 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | 27 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 7-14 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 25 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 23 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 7-13 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quenton Jackson | 19 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 7-10 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jay Huff | 28 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Obi Toppin | 21 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Slawson | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Green | 38 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jericho Sims | 36 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Herro | 31 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 7-16 | 3-10 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Ousmane Dieng | 28 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Rollins | 24 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 20 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 8-24 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cormac Ryan | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kel'el Ware | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Pacers: Haliburton 32 · Siakam 30 · Nesmith 28 · Oubre 26 · Walker 26 · Brown 23 · Jackson 22 · Huff 21 (projected minutes). Out: Andrew Nembhard, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard
Bucks: Herro 32 · Dieng 30 · Rollins 30 · Green 30 · Jaquez 29 · Sims 27 · Kuzma 25 · Ryan 25 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Pacers grab 25% of their misses (the fewest). Bucks let opponents get 27% (8th-fewest).
Ball security. Pacers turn it over on 15% of possessions (11th of 30). Bucks force turnovers on 14% (2nd-fewest).
In transition. Bucks get out in transition 6th-fewest in the NBA. Pacers allow 8th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 47% of sims.
Haliburton posts a double-double in 17%.
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 24% of sims.
Sims posts a double-double in 18%.
Green hits 5+ threes in 19%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 16+ threes (32% of sims), they win 66%, up from 46%.
When Bucks hit 15+ threes (34% of sims), they win 73%, up from 55%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Pacers (37% of sims), they win 70%, up from 55%.
Reality check
Pacers score 119.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.8 against this defense.
Bucks score 110.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.5 against this defense.
Siakam: 24.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22 · 5.8 · 4.1.
Haliburton: 21.7 pts · 4 reb · 9.7 ast over his last 3. In the sims: 17.6 · 3.9 · 6.8.
Jaquez: 19.5 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.3 · 5.9 · 3.6.
Herro: 19.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.6 · 4.3 · 3.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Bucks win 55% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- AJ Green11+ pts52%of sims32%books imply
- Ryan Rollins15+ pts63%of sims56%books imply
- Ryan Rollins20+ pts + reb58%of sims52%books imply
- Ryan Rollins20+ pts + ast61%of sims55%books imply
- Ryan Rollins25+ pts + reb + ast56%of sims51%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.