Pacers vs 76ers prediction
Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: 76ers 113, Pacers 110.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the 76ers won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 25 pts · 10 reb · 3 ast
- Andrew Nembhard Pacers 20 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast
- Tyrese Maxey 76ers 29 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Jaylen Brown 76ers 25 pts · 7 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 27 | 39 | 22 | 22 | 110 |
| PHI | 30 | 22 | 25 | 36 | 113 |
Top scorers: Tyrese Maxey 29, Pascal Siakam 25, Jaylen Brown 25, Andrew Nembhard 20, Obi Toppin 15, Rayan Rupert 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nembhard | 35 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 6-6 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 29 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 29 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pascal Siakam | 27 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 5-7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivica Zubac | 23 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quenton Jackson | 31 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Kobe Brown | 20 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarace Walker | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Obi Toppin | 19 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jay Huff | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 40 | 29 | 3 | 3 | 8-14 | 2-6 | 11-12 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 38 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Brown | 37 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 9-18 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Joel Embiid | 32 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 4-14 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| LeBron James | 25 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Wade | 26 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 23 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 18 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Pacers: Nembhard 32 · Siakam 31 · Nesmith 25 · Jackson 24 · Zubac 23 · Walker 23 · Oubre 23 · Toppin 23 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard
76ers: Maxey 34 · Brown 33 · Edgecombe 32 · Embiid 31 · Caldwell-Pope 30 · James 30 · Rupert 27 · Wade 24 (projected minutes). Out: Dominick Barlow, Adem Bona
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Pacers grab 24% of their misses (the fewest). 76ers let opponents get 26% (7th-fewest).
Ball security. 76ers turn it over on 13% of possessions (4th-fewest). Pacers force turnovers on 14% (8th-fewest).
From three. 76ers take 40% of their shots from deep (7th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Pacers give up 41% of shots from three (7th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 45% of sims.
Zubac posts a double-double in 24%.
Maxey leads the 76ers in scoring in 38% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 37%.
Maxey hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 14+ threes (28% of sims), they win 65%, up from 45%.
When 76ers hit 12+ threes (32% of sims), they win 73%, up from 55%.
When Pacers commit fewer turnovers than 76ers (35% of sims), they win 61%, up from 45%.
Reality check
Pacers score 110.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.9 against this defense.
76ers score 111.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.9 against this defense.
Siakam: 22.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 6 · 4.2.
Nembhard: 16.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 7.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.9 · 2.2 · 8.2.
Maxey: 26.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.1 · 3.2 · 4.9.
Brown: 21.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 6.3 · 2.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The 76ers win 55% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- LeBron James10+ pts86%of sims92Our Rating
- Pascal Siakam4+ reb77%of sims88Our Rating
- Joel Embiid20+ pts + reb83%of sims88Our Rating
- LeBron James25+ pts + reb + ast61%of sims88Our Rating
- Pascal Siakam7+ reb + ast82%of sims87Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.