Nuggets vs Thunder prediction
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, Thursday, October 22, 2026 · Paycom Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 118, Nuggets 117.
Final: OKC 96–84. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Thunder 118, Nuggets 117 (the Thunder won 51% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 19 pts · 6 reb · 6 ast
- Christian Braun Nuggets 19 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 28 pts · 2 reb · 9 ast
- Ajay Mitchell Thunder 26 pts · 1 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 40 | 29 | 16 | 32 | 117 |
| OKC | 21 | 33 | 34 | 30 | 118 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 28, Ajay Mitchell 26, Jalen Williams 21, Christian Braun 19, Nikola Jokic 19, Marvin Bagley III 18
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.