Nuggets vs Rockets prediction
Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, Monday, November 9, 2026 · Toyota Center (Houston). We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 120, Nuggets 118.
Final: HOU 110–100. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rockets 120, Nuggets 118 (the Rockets won 54% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jamal Murray Nuggets 32 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 22 pts · 9 reb · 9 ast
- Amen Thompson Rockets 21 pts · 8 reb · 4 ast
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 19 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 34 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 118 |
| HOU | 38 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 120 |
Top scorers: Jamal Murray 32, Nikola Jokic 22, Amen Thompson 21, DeMar DeRozan 20, Alperen Sengun 19, Reed Sheppard 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Braun | 39 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jamal Murray | 35 | 32 | 2 | 4 | 11-16 | 5-7 | 5-5 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Nikola Jokic | 34 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 10-19 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 32 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Gordon | 26 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 33 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 8-16 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Trevon Brazile | 22 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 35 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alperen Sengun | 31 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Fred VanVleet | 29 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 5-13 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Kevin Durant | 28 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Amen Thompson | 27 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9-14 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Tari Eason | 35 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Smart | 28 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Sheppard | 28 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 99 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Nuggets: Murray 35 · Jokic 33 · Braun 32 · DeRozan 30 · Gordon 28 · Johnson 28 · Brazile 25 · Nembhard 18 (projected minutes)
Rockets: Smith 34 · Durant 33 · Thompson 33 · Sengun 32 · VanVleet 29 · Smart 28 · Eason 27 · Sheppard 24 (projected minutes). Out: Steven Adams, Oscar Tshiebwe
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Rockets finish 67% at the basket (10th-best; 28% of their shots). Nuggets allow 69% there (5th-highest).
Second chances. Rockets grab 31% of their misses (the most). Nuggets let opponents get 27% (14th of 30).
From three. Nuggets take 41% of their shots from deep (9th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 37%, worth 1.12 points a shot. Rockets give up 41% of shots from three (20th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 48% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 52%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 13%.
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 28% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 43%.
Sheppard hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Nuggets hit 12+ threes (37% of sims), they win 62%, up from 46%.
When Rockets hit 14+ threes (35% of sims), they win 74%, up from 54%.
When Rockets commit fewer turnovers than Nuggets (45% of sims), they win 69%, up from 54%.
Reality check
Nuggets score 122.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.4 against this defense.
Rockets score 118.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.2 against this defense.
Jokic: 24.6 pts · 10.6 reb · 9.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.6 · 9.4 · 6.9.
Murray: 24.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20 · 4.5 · 5.1.
Durant: 22.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.2 · 5.7 · 3.3.
Sengun: 19.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.3 · 9.1 · 5.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 54% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- DeMar DeRozan14+ pts53%of sims36%books imply
- Reed Sheppard10+ pts58%of sims42%books imply
- DeMar DeRozan15+ pts + reb58%of sims42%books imply
- DeMar DeRozan15+ pts + ast61%of sims46%books imply
- DeMar DeRozan15+ pts + reb + ast70%of sims60%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.