Nuggets vs Pelicans prediction
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Smoothie King Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Nuggets 123, Pelicans 120.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Nuggets won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 35 pts · 10 reb · 9 ast
- Jamal Murray Nuggets 22 pts · 4 reb · 8 ast
- Jeremiah Fears Pelicans 18 pts · 6 reb · 8 ast
- Saddiq Bey Pelicans 18 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 30 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 123 |
| NO | 30 | 25 | 34 | 31 | 120 |
Top scorers: Nikola Jokic 35, Jamal Murray 22, DeMar DeRozan 18, Jeremiah Fears 18, Saddiq Bey 18, Zion Williamson 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 39 | 35 | 10 | 9 | 14-19 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Jamal Murray | 33 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Braun | 27 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Gordon | 25 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 29 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 8-10 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Trevon Brazile | 22 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Spencer Jones | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryce Hopkins | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 30 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 26 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Herbert Jones | 20 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 20 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 18 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Saddiq Bey | 29 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan Poole | 26 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 5-11 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryce McGowens | 23 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derik Queen | 19 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Reese | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Pelicans are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Nuggets: Murray 34 · Braun 32 · Jokic 32 · Johnson 28 · Gordon 27 · DeRozan 26 · Brazile 22 · Jones 21 (projected minutes). Out: Ryan Nembhard, Cam Whitmore
Pelicans: Williamson 31 · Bey 29 · Fears 28 · Queen 23 · Jones 23 · Reese 22 · Poole 22 · Matkovic 18 (projected minutes). Out: Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi, Trendon Watford
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Pelicans get out in transition 3rd-most in the NBA. Nuggets allow 4th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Nuggets finish 68% at the basket (3rd-best; 28% of their shots). Pelicans allow 68% there (7th-highest).
Ball security. Nuggets turn it over on 13% of possessions (3rd-fewest). Pelicans force turnovers on 14% (17th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 42% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 66%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 20%.
Williamson leads the Pelicans in scoring in 39% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 18%.
What swings it
When Pelicans commit fewer turnovers than Nuggets (43% of sims), they win 55%, up from 41%.
When Nuggets hit 14+ threes (35% of sims), they win 77%, up from 59%.
When Pelicans hit 11+ threes (32% of sims), they win 56%, up from 41%.
Reality check
Nuggets score 120.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 119.1 against this defense.
Pelicans score 117.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.3 against this defense.
Murray: 25.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 5.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.1 · 4.5 · 6.6.
Jokic: 22.7 pts · 11 reb · 8.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.6 · 10.1 · 8.8.
Williamson: 21.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.9 · 4.7 · 2.7.
Bey: 16.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 3.7 · 2.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Nuggets win 59% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DEN −12.5): the Nuggets cover in 30%.
Total 234.5: over in 49%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Jamal Murray1+ threes95%of sims91Our Rating
- Jamal Murray20+ pts + ast89%of sims89Our Rating95%books imply
- Zion Williamson15+ pts + ast85%of sims88Our Rating94%books imply
- Aaron Gordon3+ reb78%of sims88Our Rating88%books imply
- Jamal Murray15+ pts87%of sims88Our Rating94%books imply
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.