Nuggets vs Pacers prediction
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers, Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Arena CDMX. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Nuggets 123, Pacers 111.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Nuggets won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 29 pts · 10 reb · 7 ast
- Jamal Murray Nuggets 16 pts · 5 reb · 7 ast
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 24 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Andrew Nembhard Pacers 19 pts · 1 reb · 9 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 26 | 35 | 26 | 36 | 123 |
| IND | 28 | 22 | 35 | 26 | 111 |
Top scorers: Nikola Jokic 29, Pascal Siakam 24, Andrew Nembhard 19, Jamal Murray 16, Ivica Zubac 15, DeMar DeRozan 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 37 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Gordon | 33 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Johnson | 32 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Nikola Jokic | 28 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 11-21 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Braun | 28 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 25 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevon Brazile | 23 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 22 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 35 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 11-18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 31 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 7-14 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ivica Zubac | 27 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 21 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3-11 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Obi Toppin | 26 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarace Walker | 24 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobe Brown | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quenton Jackson | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jay Huff | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Nuggets: Murray 35 · Jokic 33 · Braun 33 · Gordon 29 · Johnson 28 · DeRozan 25 · Bagley 22 · Nembhard 18 (projected minutes). Out: Spencer Jones
Pacers: Nembhard 31 · Siakam 30 · Walker 28 · Jackson 26 · Nesmith 26 · Toppin 24 · Oubre 24 · Zubac 24 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, T.J. McConnell
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Nuggets get out in transition 6th-fewest in the NBA. Pacers allow 6th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Nuggets take 41% of their shots from deep (10th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 37%, worth 1.12 points a shot. Pacers give up 40% of shots from three (5th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 46% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 58%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 14%.
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 41% of sims.
Nembhard posts a double-double in 29%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 14+ threes (33% of sims), they win 61%, up from 42%.
When Nuggets hit 13+ threes (28% of sims), they win 76%, up from 58%.
When Pacers commit fewer turnovers than Nuggets (45% of sims), they win 55%, up from 42%.
Reality check
Nuggets score 123.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.4 against this defense.
Pacers score 110.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113 against this defense.
Murray: 24.7 pts · 5.1 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.8 · 4.7 · 5.3.
Jokic: 24.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 9.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.9 · 10 · 7.4.
Siakam: 22.2 pts · 7 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20 · 5.8 · 3.7.
Nembhard: 17.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.8 · 2 · 8.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Nuggets win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.