Nuggets vs Grizzlies prediction
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · FedExForum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Nuggets 113, Grizzlies 105.
Final: DEN 123–118. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Nuggets 113, Grizzlies 105 (the Nuggets won 54% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Nuggets won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 29 pts · 12 reb · 11 ast
- Jamal Murray Nuggets 25 pts · 4 reb · 6 ast
- Cameron Boozer Grizzlies 16 pts · 9 reb · 3 ast
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 14 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 32 | 23 | 27 | 31 | 113 |
| MEM | 29 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 105 |
Top scorers: Nikola Jokic 29, Jamal Murray 25, Cameron Boozer 16, Ty Jerome 14, Zach Edey 14, DeMar DeRozan 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 36 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 9-12 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Nikola Jokic | 36 | 29 | 12 | 11 | 10-17 | 3-4 | 6-8 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Christian Braun | 31 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Gordon | 27 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Cameron Johnson | 25 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 29 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 3-10 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 27 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevon Brazile | 22 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer | 29 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 6-16 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ty Jerome | 29 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 7-14 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Edey | 26 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Cedric Coward | 25 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 3-11 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jaylen Wells | 22 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerami Grant | 25 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Small | 25 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahmai Mashack | 19 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Cam Spencer | 16 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Nuggets: Murray 35 · Jokic 33 · Braun 33 · Gordon 28 · Johnson 28 · DeRozan 28 · Brazile 20 · Nembhard 18 (projected minutes)
Grizzlies: Boozer 30 · Jerome 28 · Grant 27 · Coward 26 · Wells 25 · Mashack 23 · Small 23 · Spencer 23 (projected minutes). Out: Scotty Pippen Jr., Quinten Post
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Grizzlies get out in transition 9th-most in the NBA. Nuggets allow 2nd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Nuggets finish 68% at the basket (6th-best; 28% of their shots). Grizzlies allow 68% there (10th-highest).
From three. Grizzlies take 44% of their shots from deep (10th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Nuggets give up 43% of shots from three (8th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 44% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 57%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 14%.
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 49% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 31%.
Jerome hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Grizzlies hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 68%, up from 46%.
When Nuggets hit 13+ threes (31% of sims), they win 72%, up from 54%.
When Grizzlies commit fewer turnovers than Nuggets (41% of sims), they win 62%, up from 46%.
Reality check
Nuggets score 121.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.2 against this defense.
Grizzlies score 116.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.9 against this defense.
Murray: 24.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.3 · 4.4 · 5.3.
Jokic: 23.3 pts · 11.3 reb · 8.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.5 · 10 · 7.2.
Jerome: 24.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.5 · 3.2 · 4.
Boozer: 16.2 pts · 9.7 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 10. In the sims: 15.9 · 8.2 · 4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Nuggets win 54% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DEN −3.5): the Nuggets cover in 46%.
Total 230.5: over in 50%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Trevon Brazile10+ pts + reb56%of sims41%books imply
- Cam Spencer8+ reb + ast57%of sims44%books imply
- Trevon Brazile6+ pts52%of sims38%books imply
- Cam Spencer5+ ast63%of sims50%books imply
- DeMar DeRozan12+ pts60%of sims49%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.