Nets vs Pelicans prediction
Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Smoothie King Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pelicans 122, Nets 108.
Final: BKN 145–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pelicans 122, Nets 108 (the Pelicans won 59% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pelicans won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Michael Porter Jr. Nets 32 pts · 9 reb · 2 ast
- Julius Randle Nets 16 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
- Saddiq Bey Pelicans 30 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
- Julian Reese Pelicans 18 pts · 13 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 22 | 28 | 24 | 34 | 108 |
| NO | 36 | 25 | 28 | 33 | 122 |
Top scorers: Michael Porter Jr. 32, Saddiq Bey 30, Jordan Poole 18, Julian Reese 18, Julius Randle 16, Derik Queen 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 29 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 29 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 11-22 | 4-10 | 6-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 26 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Egor Demin | 20 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2-11 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Drake Powell | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Saraf | 28 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chaney Johnson | 28 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Minott | 28 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Danny Wolf | 22 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 6-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Moritz Wagner | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Reese | 40 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 9-15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Zion Williamson | 28 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 8-12 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 26 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-18 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Dejounte Murray | 23 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 14 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Saddiq Bey | 33 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 11-13 | 1-2 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derik Queen | 30 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 4-14 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 20 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Poole | 17 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Herbert Jones | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Nets: Randle 31 · Porter 31 · Saraf 28 · Demin 24 · Sharpe 22 · Powell 22 · Wolf 22 · Johnson 21 (projected minutes). Out: Mikel Brown Jr., Nolan Traore
Pelicans: Bey 31 · Williamson 31 · Murray 29 · Fears 28 · Queen 26 · Reese 23 · Poole 22 · Matkovic 18 (projected minutes). Out: Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi, Bennedict Mathurin, Trendon Watford
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Nets take 46% of their shots from deep (6th-most in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Pelicans give up 44% of shots from three (5th-most).
Ball security. Nets turn it over on 15% of possessions (2nd-most). Pelicans force turnovers on 14% (17th of 30).
In transition. Pelicans get out in transition 5th-most in the NBA. Nets allow 12th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 39% of sims.
Porter posts a double-double in 16%.
Porter hits 5+ threes in 18%.
Williamson leads the Pelicans in scoring in 25% of sims.
Queen posts a double-double in 20%.
What swings it
When Nets hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 60%, up from 41%.
When Nets commit fewer turnovers than Pelicans (41% of sims), they win 57%, up from 41%.
When Pelicans hit 10+ threes (36% of sims), they win 73%, up from 59%.
Reality check
Nets score 105.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.1 against this defense.
Pelicans score 120 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.7 against this defense.
Porter: 22 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.4 · 6.2 · 1.6.
Randle: 20.4 pts · 6.4 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.1 · 5.4 · 4.6.
Williamson: 20 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.2 · 4.3 · 2.7.
Fears: 17.1 pts · 5 reb · 4.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 3.9 · 4.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pelicans win 59% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NO −2.5): the Pelicans cover in 54%.
Total 228.5: over in 52%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Derik Queen15+ pts + ast60%of sims42%books imply
- Derik Queen14+ pts50%of sims33%books imply
- Derik Queen20+ pts + reb53%of sims38%books imply
- Derik Queen20+ pts + reb + ast64%of sims52%books imply
- Derik Queen3+ ast55%of sims48%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.