Nets vs Mavericks prediction
Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · American Airlines Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Mavericks 114, Nets 109.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Mavericks won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Julius Randle Nets 24 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
- Michael Porter Jr. Nets 18 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 20 pts · 8 reb · 5 ast
- Naji Marshall Mavericks 19 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 29 | 17 | 24 | 39 | 109 |
| DAL | 36 | 29 | 22 | 27 | 114 |
Top scorers: Julius Randle 24, Cooper Flagg 20, Naji Marshall 19, Michael Porter Jr. 18, Kyrie Irving 17, Ben Saraf 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Porter Jr. | 34 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Julius Randle | 28 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 10-12 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nolan Traore | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 17 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Drake Powell | 16 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Saraf | 41 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 24 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Chaney Johnson | 23 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danny Wolf | 18 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Minott | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 33 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3-13 | 1-7 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyrie Irving | 28 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 6-13 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cooper Flagg | 26 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 9-15 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Christie | 22 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Daniel Gafford | 21 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Santi Aldama | 35 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 28 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Naji Marshall | 23 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Nets are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Nets: Randle 32 · Porter 31 · Saraf 28 · Brown 25 · Powell 24 · Sharpe 21 · Traore 21 · Wolf 21 (projected minutes). Out: Egor Demin
Mavericks: Washington 31 · Flagg 30 · Aldama 30 · Irving 28 · Marshall 26 · Risacher 26 · Christie 22 · Gafford 21 (projected minutes). Out: Dereck Lively II
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Nets finish 64% at the basket (the worst; 29% of their shots). Mavericks allow 67% there (16th of 30).
In transition. Nets get out in transition 18th of 30 in the NBA. Mavericks allow 2nd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Mavericks take 38% of their shots from deep (6th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Nets give up 42% of shots from three (17th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 36% of sims.
Porter posts a double-double in 20%.
Porter hits 5+ threes in 14%.
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 41% of sims.
Flagg posts a double-double in 20%.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Nets hit 14+ threes (30% of sims), they win 61%, up from 40%.
When Mavericks hit 13+ threes (36% of sims), they win 76%, up from 60%.
When Nets commit fewer turnovers than Mavericks (46% of sims), they win 54%, up from 40%.
Reality check
Nets score 104.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 108.8 against this defense.
Mavericks score 116.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113 against this defense.
Randle: 21.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18 · 6.2 · 3.9.
Porter: 21.3 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 6.8 · 1.3.
Flagg: 22.5 pts · 7 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.6 · 6.2 · 5.1.
Irving: 21.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.4 ast over his last 7. In the sims: 18.2 · 3.3 · 3.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Mavericks win 60% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.