Nets vs Hawks prediction
Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks, Saturday, November 7, 2026 · State Farm Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hawks 108, Nets 102.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hawks won 67% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Julius Randle Nets 16 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
- Mikel Brown Jr. Nets 16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- CJ McCollum Hawks 22 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
- Onyeka Okongwu Hawks 17 pts · 11 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 24 | 24 | 31 | 23 | 102 |
| ATL | 25 | 25 | 33 | 25 | 108 |
Top scorers: CJ McCollum 22, Onyeka Okongwu 17, Mikel Brown Jr. 16, Julius Randle 16, Nolan Traore 13, Kingston Flemings 12
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 28 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 27 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 25 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Traore | 20 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Powell | 17 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chaney Johnson | 27 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ben Saraf | 26 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 26 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 4-11 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Minott | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Danny Wolf | 19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 36 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2-13 | 2-9 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 34 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 8-15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Jalen Johnson | 33 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| CJ McCollum | 32 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 9-16 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Dyson Daniels | 29 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Luguentz Dort | 24 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingston Flemings | 21 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Wilson | 17 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Hawks are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Nets: Randle 31 · Porter 30 · Saraf 28 · Brown 26 · Powell 24 · Sharpe 21 · Minott 21 · Wolf 21 (projected minutes). Out: Egor Demin
Hawks: Johnson 31 · Alexander-Walker 30 · Daniels 29 · Okongwu 28 · Wiggins 26 · McCollum 26 · Wilson 26 · Flemings 23 (projected minutes). Out: Keshon Gilbert, Jock Landale
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Nets turn it over on 15% of possessions (3rd-most). Hawks force turnovers on 15% (4th-most).
Second chances. Nets grab 26% of their misses (4th-fewest). Hawks let opponents get 27% (9th-fewest).
In transition. Hawks get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Nets allow 13th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 34% of sims.
Porter posts a double-double in 20%.
Porter hits 5+ threes in 13%.
Alexander-Walker leads the Hawks in scoring in 34% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 47%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 22%.
What swings it
When Nets hit 14+ threes (29% of sims), they win 53%, up from 33%.
When Nets commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (30% of sims), they win 51%, up from 33%.
When Hawks hit 16+ threes (32% of sims), they win 83%, up from 67%.
Reality check
Nets score 104.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.7 against this defense.
Hawks score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.8 against this defense.
Randle: 21.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.8 · 6.3 · 3.9.
Porter: 21.3 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.4 · 6.9 · 1.3.
Alexander-Walker: 22.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 2.9 · 2.5.
Johnson: 17.9 pts · 9.9 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 9.4 · 6.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hawks win 67% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.