Nets vs Grizzlies prediction

How it played out: quarter by quarter

Top scorers: Cameron Boozer 22, Ty Jerome 21, Mikel Brown Jr. 18, Julius Randle 18, Isaiah Stewart 17, Day'Ron Sharpe 16

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).

   Grizzlies are on the second night of a back-to-back.

2. Who's in the sim

   Nets: Randle 30 · Porter 30 · Brown 27 · Ellis 26 · Demin 24 · Wolf 22 · Sharpe 22 · Powell 20 (projected minutes). Out: Ben Saraf

   Grizzlies: Boozer 30 · Jerome 28 · Mashack 28 · Grant 26 · Coward 26 · Wells 26 · Spencer 22 · Small 22 (projected minutes). Out: Scotty Pippen Jr.

3. What's mapped in

   • Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
   • Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
   • Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
   • Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
   • Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Second chances. Nets grab 26% of their misses (20th of 30). Grizzlies let opponents get 26% (9th-fewest).

   Ball security. Nets turn it over on 15% of possessions (2nd-most). Grizzlies force turnovers on 14% (12th of 30).

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 36% of sims.

   Porter posts a double-double in 21%.

   Porter hits 5+ threes in 16%.

   Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 55% of sims.

   Boozer posts a double-double in 36%.

   Jerome hits 5+ threes in 11%.

6. What swings it

   When Nets hit 15+ threes (34% of sims), they win 57%, up from 37%.

   When Grizzlies hit 15+ threes (38% of sims), they win 80%, up from 63%.

   When Nets commit fewer turnovers than Grizzlies (46% of sims), they win 50%, up from 37%.

7. Reality check

   Nets score 107.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 108.6 against this defense.

   Grizzlies score 117.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.7 against this defense.

   Porter: 21.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.1 · 7 · 1.3.

   Randle: 19.7 pts · 6.1 reb · 4.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.7 · 6.3 · 4.

   Jerome: 24.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.6 · 3 · 4.

   Boozer: 15.6 pts · 9.8 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.7 · 9 · 3.9.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Grizzlies win 63% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (MEM −3.5): the Grizzlies cover in 57%.

   Total 228.5: over in 38%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Julius Randle15+ pts + ast
     85%of sims
     90Our Rating
   • Michael Porter Jr.20+ pts + reb + ast
     76%of sims
     87Our Rating
     96%books imply
   • Michael Porter Jr.15+ pts + ast
     74%of sims
     86Our Rating
     94%books imply
   • Egor Demin1+ threes
     77%of sims
     85Our Rating
     90%books imply
   • Cedric Coward5+ reb + ast
     94%of sims
     85Our Rating