Nets vs Celtics prediction
Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics, Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · TD Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 115, Nets 110.
Final: BOS 125–124. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Celtics 115, Nets 110 (the Celtics won 69% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 69% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Julius Randle Nets 27 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
- Michael Porter Jr. Nets 18 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 28 pts · 9 reb · 7 ast
- Payton Pritchard Celtics 25 pts · 1 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 39 | 21 | 20 | 30 | 110 |
| BOS | 30 | 26 | 31 | 28 | 115 |
Top scorers: Jayson Tatum 28, Julius Randle 27, Payton Pritchard 25, Michael Porter Jr. 18, Derrick White 16, Day'Ron Sharpe 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 32 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 11-14 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keon Ellis | 31 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 29 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 7-12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Egor Demin | 24 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Drake Powell | 18 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Wolf | 26 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 24 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ben Saraf | 23 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 5-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Minott | 22 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Nolan Traore | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 39 | 28 | 9 | 7 | 9-23 | 4-11 | 6-8 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Sam Hauser | 33 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul George | 31 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Neemias Queta | 29 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Derrick White | 23 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Payton Pritchard | 32 | 25 | 1 | 5 | 9-22 | 5-14 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luka Garza | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 17 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walsh | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 104).
Celtics are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Nets: Randle 33 · Porter 31 · Demin 27 · Ellis 26 · Saraf 26 · Minott 22 · Wolf 22 · Traore 21 (projected minutes)
Celtics: Tatum 35 · White 32 · George 31 · Pritchard 30 · Queta 26 · Hauser 25 · Scheierman 22 · Robinson 20 (projected minutes). Out: Devin Carter
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Nets take 45% of their shots from deep (6th-most in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Celtics give up 45% of shots from three (the most).
At the rim. Nets finish 63% at the basket (the worst; 30% of their shots). Celtics allow 65% there (7th-lowest).
Ball security. Nets turn it over on 15% of possessions (2nd-most). Celtics force turnovers on 15% (16th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 39% of sims.
Randle posts a double-double in 15%.
Porter hits 5+ threes in 17%.
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 47% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 37%.
George hits 5+ threes in 18%.
What swings it
When Nets hit 15+ threes (34% of sims), they win 50%, up from 31%.
When Celtics hit 17+ threes (32% of sims), they win 87%, up from 69%.
When Nets commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (38% of sims), they win 45%, up from 31%.
Reality check
Nets score 105.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.4 against this defense.
Celtics score 117.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.8 against this defense.
Porter: 21.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.4 · 6.1 · 1.6.
Randle: 20.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.8 · 6.2 · 3.7.
Tatum: 23.6 pts · 10 reb · 7.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.2 · 8.4 · 5.4.
George: 20.9 pts · 5.7 reb · 3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19 · 4.9 · 2.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 69% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.