Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, Thursday, November 12, 2026 · Target Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Timberwolves 119, Mavericks 107.
Final: MIN 133–94. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Timberwolves 119, Mavericks 107 (the Timberwolves won 64% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Timberwolves won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 23 pts · 5 reb · 7 ast
- Naji Marshall Mavericks 23 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast
- Jonathan Kuminga Timberwolves 19 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
- Ayo Dosunmu Timberwolves 16 pts · 5 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 21 | 28 | 31 | 27 | 107 |
| MIN | 29 | 20 | 38 | 32 | 119 |
Top scorers: Cooper Flagg 23, Naji Marshall 23, Jonathan Kuminga 19, Kyrie Irving 17, LaMelo Ball 16, Terrence Shannon Jr. 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 41 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 10-25 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Kyrie Irving | 29 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| P.J. Washington | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Daniel Gafford | 20 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Max Christie | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naji Marshall | 35 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 8-16 | 2-6 | 5-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 23 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Santi Aldama | 21 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 4-12 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 19 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Caleb Martin | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 34 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 33 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Rudy Gobert | 30 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| LaMelo Ball | 27 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 4-11 | 3-8 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 25 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 6-13 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Cody Williams | 26 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 25 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Trey Lyles | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Joan Beringer | 18 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Clark | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Mavericks: Washington 31 · Flagg 30 · Irving 29 · Marshall 27 · Aldama 26 · Risacher 26 · Gafford 21 · Clayton 19 (projected minutes). Out: Dereck Lively II
Timberwolves: McDaniels 32 · Dosunmu 29 · Gobert 29 · Kuminga 28 · Ball 26 · Shannon 25 · Lyles 21 · Beringer 20 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Mavericks take 38% of their shots from deep (5th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Timberwolves give up 39% of shots from three (the fewest).
Second chances. Timberwolves grab 29% of their misses (6th-most). Mavericks let opponents get 27% (8th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 42% of sims.
Flagg posts a double-double in 18%.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 13%.
McDaniels leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 23% of sims.
Gobert posts a double-double in 32%.
Ball hits 5+ threes in 20%.
What swings it
When Mavericks hit 13+ threes (31% of sims), they win 55%, up from 36%.
When Timberwolves hit 14+ threes (30% of sims), they win 82%, up from 64%.
When Mavericks commit fewer turnovers than Timberwolves (41% of sims), they win 51%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Mavericks score 116.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.2 against this defense.
Timberwolves score 120.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.1 against this defense.
Flagg: 25.2 pts · 6.6 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.8 · 5.7 · 5.4.
Irving: 22.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 9. In the sims: 19 · 2.9 · 3.2.
Ball: 18.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.1 · 3.2 · 5.8.
Dosunmu: 17.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.9 · 4 · 4.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Timberwolves win 64% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Cooper Flagg10+ pts90%of sims92Our Rating
- LaMelo Ball15+ pts + ast84%of sims91Our Rating
- Cooper Flagg15+ pts + reb87%of sims90Our Rating
- LaMelo Ball20+ pts + reb + ast74%of sims89Our Rating94%books imply
- Rudy Gobert8+ reb + ast82%of sims89Our Rating94%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.