Mavericks vs Spurs prediction
Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Frost Bank Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 119, Mavericks 114.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 66% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 26 pts · 10 reb · 6 ast
- Naji Marshall Mavericks 23 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Stephon Castle Spurs 24 pts · 6 reb · 6 ast
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 20 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 27 | 24 | 26 | 37 | 114 |
| SA | 23 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 119 |
Top scorers: Cooper Flagg 26, Stephon Castle 24, Naji Marshall 23, Victor Wembanyama 20, Kyrie Irving 18, Dylan Harper 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 31 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Cooper Flagg | 30 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 11-27 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyrie Irving | 27 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Max Christie | 27 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Gafford | 23 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Naji Marshall | 32 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 10-17 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 22 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moussa Cisse | 17 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell | 34 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Stephon Castle | 33 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 9-14 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 32 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 6-8 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 29 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dylan Harper | 28 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 6-13 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Julian Champagnie | 30 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Keldon Johnson | 25 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6-11 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kornet | 21 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Harrison Barnes | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Mavericks: Washington 31 · Flagg 29 · Marshall 28 · Irving 27 · Risacher 25 · Christie 25 · Clayton 22 · Gafford 22 (projected minutes). Out: Santi Aldama, Dereck Lively II
Spurs: Fox 30 · Vassell 30 · Castle 29 · Wembanyama 29 · Harper 28 · Johnson 27 · Champagnie 27 · Kornet 21 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Spurs turn it over on 14% of possessions (2nd-fewest). Mavericks force turnovers on 14% (4th-fewest).
In transition. Spurs get out in transition 7th-most in the NBA. Mavericks allow the most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Mavericks take 38% of their shots from deep (6th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Spurs give up 40% of shots from three (5th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 49% of sims.
Flagg posts a double-double in 17%.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 61% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 52%.
What swings it
When Mavericks commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (36% of sims), they win 50%, up from 34%.
When Spurs hit 14+ threes (29% of sims), they win 83%, up from 66%.
When Mavericks hit 12+ threes (37% of sims), they win 49%, up from 34%.
Reality check
Mavericks score 114.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111 against this defense.
Spurs score 121.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.2 against this defense.
Flagg: 27.3 pts · 7 reb · 5.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22 · 5.8 · 5.2.
Irving: 21.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 16.5 · 2.8 · 3.4.
Wembanyama: 30.3 pts · 12.4 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.1 · 10.4 · 2.6.
Fox: 17.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 6.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.8 · 3.8 · 5.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 66% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.