Mavericks vs Rockets prediction
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · Toyota Center (Houston). We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 121, Mavericks 110.
Final: HOU 128–110. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rockets 121, Mavericks 110 (the Rockets won 72% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 72% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 26 | 24 | 32 | 28 | 110 |
| HOU | 33 | 37 | 31 | 20 | 121 |
Top scorers: Kevin Durant 33, Cooper Flagg 31, Jabari Smith Jr. 29, Daniel Gafford 27, Amen Thompson 24, P.J. Washington 14
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.