Mavericks vs Pacers prediction
Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers, Friday, October 23, 2026 · Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pacers 119, Mavericks 114.
Final: DAL 121–105. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pacers 119, Mavericks 114 (the Pacers won 59% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pacers won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 47 pts · 8 reb · 6 ast
- Daniel Gafford Mavericks 16 pts · 8 reb · 1 ast
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 28 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
- Tyrese Haliburton Pacers 23 pts · 0 reb · 7 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 22 | 26 | 27 | 33 | 6 | 114 |
| IND | 32 | 18 | 30 | 28 | 11 | 119 |
Top scorers: Cooper Flagg 47, Pascal Siakam 28, Tyrese Haliburton 23, Daniel Gafford 16, P.J. Washington 15, Aaron Nesmith 14
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.