Mavericks vs Heat prediction
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat, Monday, October 26, 2026 · Kaseya Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Heat 118, Mavericks 112.
Final: DAL 113–109. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Heat 118, Mavericks 112 (the Heat won 61% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Heat won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 25 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
- P.J. Washington Mavericks 16 pts · 11 reb · 2 ast
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 34 pts · 14 reb · 5 ast
- Bobby Portis Heat 21 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 22 | 24 | 40 | 26 | 112 |
| MIA | 37 | 24 | 19 | 38 | 118 |
Top scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo 34, Cooper Flagg 25, Bobby Portis 21, Bam Adebayo 20, P.J. Washington 16, Moussa Cisse 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 34 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 9-27 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| P.J. Washington | 31 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 7-18 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Gafford | 26 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyrie Irving | 22 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Max Christie | 19 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Moussa Cisse | 30 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Sasser | 17 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 15 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sergio de Larrea | 15 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 14 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jett Howard | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 43 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 9-16 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 26 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Davion Mitchell | 24 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Pelle Larsson | 24 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 24 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 14-22 | 2-4 | 4-8 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Bobby Portis | 31 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 9-14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Klay Thompson | 29 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Richards | 22 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Mavericks: Washington 32 · Flagg 31 · Christie 28 · Irving 25 · Gafford 22 · Clayton 22 · Risacher 19 · Cisse 16 (projected minutes). Out: Naji Marshall, Santi Aldama, Caleb Martin, Dereck Lively II
Heat: Adebayo 34 · Mitchell 31 · Larsson 31 · Antetokounmpo 29 · Wiggins 27 · Portis 25 · Hardaway 23 · Thompson 21 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Heat get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Mavericks allow the most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Heat turn it over on 14% of possessions (5th-fewest). Mavericks force turnovers on 14% (7th-fewest).
From three. Heat take 41% of their shots from deep (17th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.05 points a shot. Mavericks give up 40% of shots from three (4th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 55% of sims.
Washington posts a double-double in 16%.
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 57% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 40%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 14%.
What swings it
When Mavericks hit 14+ threes (31% of sims), they win 59%, up from 39%.
When Heat hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 77%, up from 61%.
When Mavericks commit fewer turnovers than Heat (36% of sims), they win 55%, up from 39%.
Reality check
Mavericks score 117.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.7 against this defense.
Heat score 121.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 119.3 against this defense.
Flagg: 25.2 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.5 · 5.7 · 4.8.
Irving: 19.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 2. In the sims: 14.1 · 2.2 · 2.2.
Antetokounmpo: 25.1 pts · 9.9 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.9 · 8.8 · 4.7.
Adebayo: 17.5 pts · 10.4 reb · 4.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 9.1 · 5.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Heat win 61% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.