Mavericks vs Celtics prediction
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · TD Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 111, Mavericks 110.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 65% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 20 pts · 6 reb · 9 ast
- Kyrie Irving Mavericks 17 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Paul George Celtics 24 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Devin Carter Celtics 20 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 31 | 35 | 21 | 23 | 110 |
| BOS | 28 | 31 | 18 | 34 | 111 |
Top scorers: Paul George 24, Payton Pritchard 20, Cooper Flagg 20, Devin Carter 20, Jayson Tatum 18, Naji Marshall 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 37 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 6-20 | 0-3 | 8-10 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Kyrie Irving | 36 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Daniel Gafford | 25 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| P.J. Washington | 24 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Max Christie | 24 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Naji Marshall | 22 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Santi Aldama | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 19 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 17 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Caleb Martin | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 31 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 6-17 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick White | 31 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Paul George | 25 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 8-18 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Devin Carter | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 8-14 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Neemias Queta | 24 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Payton Pritchard | 36 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 7-12 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 26 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Hauser | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Conley | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Mavericks are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Mavericks: Washington 30 · Flagg 30 · Irving 28 · Marshall 26 · Risacher 26 · Aldama 24 · Gafford 21 · Clayton 19 (projected minutes). Out: Dereck Lively II
Celtics: Tatum 32 · Pritchard 30 · White 28 · George 28 · Carter 26 · Hauser 23 · Scheierman 23 · Queta 22 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Celtics grab 29% of their misses (4th-most). Mavericks let opponents get 27% (11th of 30).
In transition. Mavericks get out in transition 14th of 30 in the NBA. Celtics allow 2nd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 41% of sims.
Flagg posts a double-double in 21%.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 14%.
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 55% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 19%.
George hits 5+ threes in 17%.
What swings it
When Mavericks hit 14+ threes (28% of sims), they win 56%, up from 35%.
When Celtics hit 16+ threes (34% of sims), they win 83%, up from 65%.
When Mavericks commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (35% of sims), they win 50%, up from 35%.
Reality check
Mavericks score 115.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 106.6 against this defense.
Celtics score 115.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.2 against this defense.
Flagg: 23.4 pts · 6.7 reb · 6.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 6.2 · 5.4.
Irving: 21.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 10. In the sims: 18.2 · 3.1 · 3.2.
Tatum: 26.1 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.2 · 6.3 · 5.1.
George: 21 pts · 5.2 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18 · 5 · 2.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 65% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Cooper Flagg10+ pts88%of sims91Our Rating
- Cooper Flagg15+ pts + reb85%of sims89Our Rating
- Derrick White1+ threes81%of sims87Our Rating
- Sam Hauser1+ threes84%of sims86Our Rating
- Payton Pritchard3+ ast69%of sims86Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.