Mavericks vs Cavaliers prediction
Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers, Saturday, November 14, 2026 · Rocket Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cavaliers 118, Mavericks 110.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cavaliers won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 24 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
- P.J. Washington Mavericks 18 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
- Peyton Watson Cavaliers 19 pts · 5 reb · 0 ast
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 18 pts · 6 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 25 | 25 | 25 | 35 | 110 |
| CLE | 37 | 23 | 37 | 21 | 118 |
Top scorers: Cooper Flagg 24, Peyton Watson 19, Jaylon Tyson 18, Donovan Mitchell 18, P.J. Washington 18, Evan Mobley 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 40 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 6-15 | 2-6 | 4-6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Cooper Flagg | 33 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 10-11 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Kyrie Irving | 25 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 5-19 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Daniel Gafford | 20 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Max Christie | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Caleb Martin | 23 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Naji Marshall | 22 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Santi Aldama | 21 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 16 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Watson | 30 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 7-17 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| James Harden | 27 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Mobley | 27 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 7-13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 25 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 7-13 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jarrett Allen | 22 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Meleek Thomas | 29 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 23 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Mario Hezonja | 20 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Bryant | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Cavaliers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Mavericks: Washington 30 · Flagg 29 · Irving 29 · Marshall 26 · Risacher 26 · Aldama 24 · Gafford 21 · Clayton 19 (projected minutes). Out: Dereck Lively II
Cavaliers: Harden 31 · Mitchell 31 · Mobley 30 · Watson 25 · Allen 25 · Thomas 24 · Tyson 24 · Hezonja 20 (projected minutes). Out: Sam Merrill
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Cavaliers turn it over on 13% of possessions (5th-fewest). Mavericks force turnovers on 14% (15th of 30).
At the rim. Mavericks finish 67% at the basket (11th of 30; 28% of their shots). Cavaliers allow 64% there (4th-lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 39% of sims.
Flagg posts a double-double in 21%.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 16%.
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 39% of sims.
Allen posts a double-double in 21%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Mavericks hit 14+ threes (34% of sims), they win 60%, up from 41%.
When Cavaliers hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 77%, up from 59%.
When Mavericks commit fewer turnovers than Cavaliers (43% of sims), they win 56%, up from 41%.
Reality check
Mavericks score 115.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.8 against this defense.
Cavaliers score 116.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.4 against this defense.
Flagg: 23.4 pts · 6.7 reb · 6.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.4 · 6.1 · 5.8.
Irving: 21.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 10. In the sims: 19.4 · 3.1 · 3.4.
Mitchell: 22.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.9 · 4 · 6.
Harden: 17 pts · 4.8 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.5 · 4.3 · 5.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cavaliers win 59% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DAL −1.5): the Mavericks cover in 39%.
Total 231.5: over in 44%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Cooper Flagg10+ pts89%of sims92Our Rating
- Cooper Flagg15+ pts + reb86%of sims90Our Rating
- James Harden20+ pts + ast56%of sims89Our Rating75%books imply
- Donovan Mitchell25+ pts + reb + ast70%of sims89Our Rating91%books imply
- Donovan Mitchell15+ pts73%of sims88Our Rating94%books imply
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.