Magic vs Warriors prediction
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors, Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Chase Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Warriors 107, Magic 102.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Warriors won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Anthony Black Magic 26 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Desmond Bane Magic 18 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- Stephen Curry Warriors 24 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- Yaxel Lendeborg Warriors 17 pts · 9 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 27 | 28 | 24 | 23 | 102 |
| GS | 29 | 26 | 23 | 29 | 107 |
Top scorers: Anthony Black 26, Stephen Curry 24, Desmond Bane 18, Yaxel Lendeborg 17, Franz Wagner 16, Tristan da Silva 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jase Richardson | 30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond Bane | 28 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 7-14 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Franz Wagner | 26 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 7-17 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Black | 24 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 9-14 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Tristan da Silva | 28 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jevon Carter | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jamal Cain | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Goga Bitadze | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Morales | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Castleton | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 31 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Stephen Curry | 29 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 7-16 | 4-7 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gui Santos | 26 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 25 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 6-20 | 2-9 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Draymond Green | 22 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Al Horford | 27 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 26 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Charles Bassey | 22 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 6-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Georges Niang | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Magic: Bane 30 · Wagner 29 · da Silva 29 · Carter 29 · Black 21 · Carter 21 · Cain 19 · Richardson 16 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs
Warriors: Lendeborg 30 · Podziemski 30 · Curry 26 · Green 25 · Melton 25 · Santos 23 · Horford 22 · Williams 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Magic turn it over on 15% of possessions (8th-most). Warriors force turnovers on 15% (5th-most).
At the rim. Warriors finish 68% at the basket (5th-best; 26% of their shots). Magic allow 68% there (10th-highest).
From three. Magic take 41% of their shots from deep (9th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Warriors give up 41% of shots from three (9th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wagner leads the Magic in scoring in 42% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 17%.
Curry leads the Warriors in scoring in 39% of sims.
Lendeborg posts a double-double in 16%.
Curry hits 5+ threes in 22%.
What swings it
When Magic hit 14+ threes (28% of sims), they win 61%, up from 41%.
When Warriors hit 16+ threes (33% of sims), they win 79%, up from 59%.
When Magic commit fewer turnovers than Warriors (38% of sims), they win 58%, up from 41%.
Reality check
Magic score 113.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.4 against this defense.
Warriors score 114.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.3 against this defense.
Wagner: 19.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.3 · 4.7 · 5.1.
Bane: 17.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.6 · 3.3 · 3.9.
Curry: 25.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.1 · 3.3 · 3.
Lendeborg: 21.5 pts · 7 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 8. In the sims: 18.3 · 6.4 · 3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Warriors win 59% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.