Magic vs Suns prediction
Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns, Thursday, November 5, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Suns 107, Magic 104.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Suns won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Desmond Bane Magic 15 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Tristan da Silva Magic 15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
- Miles Bridges Suns 24 pts · 11 reb · 1 ast
- Devin Booker Suns 18 pts · 4 reb · 7 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 30 | 29 | 21 | 24 | 104 |
| PHX | 29 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 107 |
Top scorers: Miles Bridges 24, Devin Booker 18, Tristan da Silva 15, Desmond Bane 15, Jalen Green 15, Dillon Brooks 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 31 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Anthony Black | 31 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 5-16 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 27 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Desmond Bane | 25 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jase Richardson | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tristan da Silva | 27 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Carter | 23 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Cain | 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Goga Bitadze | 15 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Colin Castleton | 8 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Alex Morales | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 35 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dillon Brooks | 29 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Bridges | 26 | 24 | 11 | 1 | 8-16 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen Green | 26 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Khaman Maluach | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Gillespie | 27 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 25 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 24 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2-11 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pat Spencer | 23 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Luke Kennard | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Suns are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Magic: Bane 31 · Wagner 29 · Carter 29 · da Silva 29 · Black 22 · Carter 21 · Cain 19 · Richardson 16 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs
Suns: Booker 32 · Bridges 28 · Gillespie 27 · Brooks 26 · Green 25 · Kennard 24 · Ighodaro 24 · Spencer 23 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Magic turn it over on 15% of possessions (9th-most). Suns force turnovers on 15% (6th-most).
In transition. Magic get out in transition 17th of 30 in the NBA. Suns allow 5th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wagner leads the Magic in scoring in 41% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 19%.
Bane hits 5+ threes in 8%.
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 56% of sims.
Bridges posts a double-double in 16%.
What swings it
When Magic hit 14+ threes (30% of sims), they win 67%, up from 47%.
When Suns hit 14+ threes (38% of sims), they win 71%, up from 53%.
When Magic commit fewer turnovers than Suns (34% of sims), they win 64%, up from 47%.
Reality check
Magic score 113.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.7 against this defense.
Suns score 114.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.9 against this defense.
Wagner: 19.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20 · 4.8 · 5.
Bane: 17.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.6 · 3.4 · 3.7.
Booker: 27.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 6.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.6 · 3.5 · 4.3.
Bridges: 17 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.4 · 6.5 · 1.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Suns win 53% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.