Magic vs Raptors prediction
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 112, Magic 110.
Final: TOR 129–99. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Raptors 112, Magic 110 (the Raptors won 63% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 63% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Desmond Bane Magic 28 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast
- Anthony Black Magic 18 pts · 1 reb · 2 ast
- RJ Barrett Raptors 28 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
- Scottie Barnes Raptors 18 pts · 9 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 26 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 110 |
| TOR | 31 | 27 | 21 | 33 | 112 |
Top scorers: RJ Barrett 28, Desmond Bane 28, Scottie Barnes 18, Anthony Black 18, Jamal Cain 14, Franz Wagner 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Bane | 39 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 10-16 | 4-6 | 4-8 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 31 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Tristan da Silva | 26 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Anthony Black | 26 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 5-13 | 1-7 | 7-8 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Franz Wagner | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jevon Carter | 28 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamal Cain | 24 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Goga Bitadze | 16 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jase Richardson | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Morales | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Colin Castleton | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 40 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 10-24 | 3-9 | 5-8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Scottie Barnes | 35 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 8-21 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 33 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 4-10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 27 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5-14 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 26 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 5-14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Malachi Smith | 25 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 19 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Anderson | 18 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Shead | 17 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Magic: Bane 32 · Carter 30 · da Silva 28 · Wagner 27 · Black 26 · Carter 21 · Cain 19 · Vucevic 18 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs
Raptors: Barrett 31 · Barnes 30 · Quickley 28 · Walter 28 · Smith 26 · Shead 24 · Poeltl 22 · Murray-Boyles 20 (projected minutes). Out: Kawhi Leonard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Raptors take 37% of their shots from deep (5th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Magic give up 40% of shots from three (3rd-fewest).
In transition. Magic get out in transition 16th of 30 in the NBA. Raptors allow 2nd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Magic turn it over on 15% of possessions (14th of 30). Raptors force turnovers on 16% (the most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Bane leads the Magic in scoring in 33% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 17%.
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 54% of sims.
Barnes posts a double-double in 21%.
What swings it
When Magic commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (30% of sims), they win 55%, up from 37%.
When Magic hit 13+ threes (37% of sims), they win 54%, up from 37%.
When Raptors hit 12+ threes (36% of sims), they win 79%, up from 63%.
Reality check
Magic score 116.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.7 against this defense.
Raptors score 118.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.2 against this defense.
Bane: 17 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.9 · 3.9 · 4.1.
Wagner: 16.6 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.9 · 3.8 · 3.7.
Barrett: 21.1 pts · 5 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.4 · 5.2 · 2.8.
Barnes: 15.3 pts · 5.9 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.7 · 6.2 · 6.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 63% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.