Magic vs Kings prediction
Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings, Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Golden 1 Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Magic 118, Kings 117.
Final: ORL 107–100. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Magic 118, Kings 117 (the Magic won 60% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Magic won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Franz Wagner Magic 27 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
- Desmond Bane Magic 26 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 38 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Zach LaVine Kings 18 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 36 | 20 | 35 | 27 | 118 |
| SAC | 28 | 32 | 26 | 31 | 117 |
Top scorers: Darius Acuff Jr. 38, Franz Wagner 27, Desmond Bane 26, Zach LaVine 18, Domantas Sabonis 17, Wendell Carter Jr. 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 39 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 8-16 | 1-4 | 10-13 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Desmond Bane | 31 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 9-13 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 20 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 3-8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Black | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jase Richardson | 18 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tristan da Silva | 28 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 5-12 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamal Cain | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 21 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jevon Carter | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Goga Bitadze | 11 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Morales | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Castleton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 37 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 15-26 | 5-11 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 36 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 34 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 7-10 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach LaVine | 34 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Keegan Murray | 21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leaky Black | 28 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cardwell | 25 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 14 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Malik Monk | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Magic: Wagner 31 · da Silva 30 · Carter 30 · Bane 29 · Black 22 · Cain 21 · Carter 18 · Richardson 18 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs
Kings: Acuff 35 · Sabonis 32 · LaVine 29 · Hunter 28 · Murray 27 · Achiuwa 27 · Cardwell 26 · Black 23 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Kings take 37% of their shots from deep (2nd-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Magic give up 40% of shots from three (2nd-fewest).
At the rim. Kings finish 68% at the basket (5th-best; 24% of their shots). Magic allow 68% there (9th-highest).
Second chances. Kings grab 26% of their misses (9th-fewest). Magic let opponents get 26% (5th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wagner leads the Magic in scoring in 46% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 24%.
da Silva hits 5+ threes in 12%.
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 57% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 54%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 17%.
What swings it
When Kings hit 13+ threes (29% of sims), they win 60%, up from 41%.
When Magic hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 76%, up from 60%.
When Magic commit fewer turnovers than Kings (45% of sims), they win 74%, up from 60%.
Reality check
Magic score 113.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.5 against this defense.
Kings score 110.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.4 against this defense.
Wagner: 20.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.7 · 4.9 · 6.6.
Bane: 16.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.7 · 3.1 · 3.4.
Acuff: 25.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 7.4 ast over his last 10. In the sims: 24.9 · 3.3 · 6.3.
LaVine: 19.3 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.8 · 2.6 · 2.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Magic win 60% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (ORL −5.5): the Magic cover in 47%.
Total 222.5: over in 63%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Precious Achiuwa7+ pts79%of sims62%books imply
- Precious Achiuwa15+ pts + reb63%of sims47%books imply
- Precious Achiuwa2+ ast53%of sims39%books imply
- Keegan Murray11+ pts51%of sims44%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.