Magic vs Jazz prediction
Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Delta Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Magic 115, Jazz 105.
Final: ORL 123–108. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Magic 115, Jazz 105 (the Magic won 58% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Magic won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Franz Wagner Magic 21 pts · 3 reb · 7 ast
- Tristan da Silva Magic 14 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Keyonte George Jazz 19 pts · 1 reb · 5 ast
- Kyle Filipowski Jazz 14 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 27 | 31 | 31 | 26 | 115 |
| UTAH | 32 | 17 | 24 | 32 | 105 |
Top scorers: Franz Wagner 21, Keyonte George 19, Tristan da Silva 14, Kyle Filipowski 14, Brice Sensabaugh 12, Goga Bitadze 12
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | 37 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 9-14 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 31 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Desmond Bane | 28 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5-15 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Black | 28 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jase Richardson | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristan da Silva | 27 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Goga Bitadze | 24 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Cain | 16 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Morales | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Carter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Castleton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | 32 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Darryn Peterson | 28 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-13 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 22 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Keyonte George | 19 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 14 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Alexander | 30 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Okogie | 25 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 19 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Collier | 16 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Mo Bamba | 9 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Green | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Magic are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Jazz are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Magic: Wagner 32 · Carter 30 · da Silva 30 · Bane 29 · Black 22 · Cain 21 · Richardson 18 · Carter 17 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs
Jazz: Peterson 29 · Bailey 29 · George 28 · Hayes 23 · Okogie 21 · Collier 18 · Mykhailiuk 17 · Filipowski 17 (projected minutes). Out: Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Jazz take 41% of their shots from deep (20th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Magic give up 40% of shots from three (2nd-fewest).
Second chances. Jazz grab 26% of their misses (17th of 30). Magic let opponents get 26% (4th-fewest).
Ball security. Jazz turn it over on 15% of possessions (4th-most). Magic force turnovers on 14% (15th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wagner leads the Magic in scoring in 51% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 26%.
da Silva hits 5+ threes in 11%.
George leads the Jazz in scoring in 40% of sims.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 13+ threes (32% of sims), they win 61%, up from 42%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Magic (39% of sims), they win 59%, up from 42%.
When Magic hit 14+ threes (36% of sims), they win 74%, up from 58%.
Reality check
Magic score 111.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.4 against this defense.
Jazz score 111.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.2 against this defense.
Wagner: 22.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 7.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23 · 5.2 · 6.5.
Bane: 15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 3.3 · 3.4.
George: 20 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 3.3 · 5.5.
Peterson: 15.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 11. In the sims: 15 · 3.4 · 3.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Magic win 58% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (ORL −4.5): the Magic cover in 47%.
Total 214.5: over in 76%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.