Magic vs Celtics prediction
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, Monday, November 16, 2026 · TD Garden. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Celtics 116, Magic 96.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Celtics won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Franz Wagner Magic 23 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
- Anthony Black Magic 16 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 28 pts · 9 reb · 6 ast
- Paul George Celtics 17 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 13 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 96 |
| BOS | 38 | 24 | 24 | 30 | 116 |
Top scorers: Jayson Tatum 28, Franz Wagner 23, Paul George 17, Derrick White 16, Anthony Black 16, Desmond Bane 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Suggs | 32 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 6-17 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Franz Wagner | 31 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 8-17 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 27 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Black | 24 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 6-15 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond Bane | 23 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Tristan da Silva | 33 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamal Cain | 32 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Jase Richardson | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Carter | 17 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 33 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 9-14 | 3-6 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Paul George | 32 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 8-17 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Derrick White | 30 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 5-11 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Devin Carter | 20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Neemias Queta | 19 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Payton Pritchard | 36 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 25 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Hauser | 24 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 15 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Conley | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 99 possessions each (league 102).
Celtics are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Magic: Wagner 34 · da Silva 34 · Bane 31 · Carter 31 · Suggs 29 · Black 27 · Cain 21 · Richardson 20 (projected minutes). Out: Paolo Banchero
Celtics: Tatum 32 · Pritchard 30 · White 28 · George 28 · Carter 26 · Hauser 23 · Scheierman 23 · Queta 22 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Magic turn it over on 15% of possessions (7th-most). Celtics force turnovers on 15% (10th-most).
From three. Magic take 42% of their shots from deep (17th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Celtics give up 47% of shots from three (the most).
In transition. Celtics get out in transition the fewest in the NBA. Magic allow 12th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wagner leads the Magic in scoring in 52% of sims.
Carter posts a double-double in 35%.
da Silva hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 56% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 19%.
George hits 5+ threes in 16%.
What swings it
When Magic hit 15+ threes (35% of sims), they win 55%, up from 36%.
When Celtics hit 16+ threes (32% of sims), they win 83%, up from 64%.
When Magic commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (34% of sims), they win 51%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Magic score 111.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 104.9 against this defense.
Celtics score 115.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111 against this defense.
Wagner: 24.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 8.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.5 · 7 · 6.
Bane: 17.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.8 · 4.2 · 2.9.
Tatum: 26.1 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.8 · 6.3 · 5.
George: 21 pts · 5.2 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.7 · 5 · 2.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Celtics win 64% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Derrick White1+ threes81%of sims88Our Rating
- Wendell Carter Jr.5+ reb91%of sims86Our Rating
- Desmond Bane1+ threes88%of sims86Our Rating
- Sam Hauser1+ threes83%of sims84Our Rating
- Payton Pritchard3+ ast67%of sims84Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.