Lakers vs Suns prediction
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Lakers 117, Suns 111.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Lakers won 62% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Luka Doncic Lakers 29 pts · 11 reb · 4 ast
- Sandro Mamukelashvili Lakers 19 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
- Devin Booker Suns 22 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
- Miles Bridges Suns 22 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 37 | 19 | 28 | 33 | 117 |
| PHX | 28 | 24 | 21 | 38 | 111 |
Top scorers: Luka Doncic 29, Miles Bridges 22, Devin Booker 22, Sandro Mamukelashvili 19, Collin Sexton 16, Austin Reaves 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Kessler | 34 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Luka Doncic | 33 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 10-25 | 2-13 | 7-8 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Austin Reaves | 31 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 5-13 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 25 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake LaRavia | 24 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 27 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 7-9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Quentin Grimes | 25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ziaire Williams | 21 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Sexton | 21 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 36 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 6-20 | 0-8 | 10-10 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Miles Bridges | 33 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 8-16 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Dillon Brooks | 28 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jalen Green | 18 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 18 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 29 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Gillespie | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khaman Maluach | 19 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Spencer | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kennard | 17 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Lakers: Reaves 33 · Doncic 33 · Grimes 30 · Kessler 29 · Mamukelashvili 27 · LaRavia 24 · Thybulle 24 · Williams 23 (projected minutes)
Suns: Booker 32 · Bridges 28 · Brooks 28 · Gillespie 26 · Green 24 · Goodwin 22 · Ighodaro 21 · Spencer 20 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Lakers turn it over on 15% of possessions (8th-most). Suns force turnovers on 15% (5th-most).
Second chances. Lakers grab 27% of their misses (14th of 30). Suns let opponents get 30% (the most).
From three. Suns take 43% of their shots from deep (12th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Lakers give up 45% of shots from three (5th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Doncic leads the Lakers in scoring in 70% of sims.
Kessler posts a double-double in 51%.
Doncic hits 5+ threes in 37%.
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 61% of sims.
Bridges posts a double-double in 16%.
What swings it
When Suns hit 15+ threes (31% of sims), they win 57%, up from 38%.
When Lakers hit 15+ threes (37% of sims), they win 79%, up from 62%.
When Lakers commit fewer turnovers than Suns (38% of sims), they win 78%, up from 62%.
Reality check
Lakers score 121.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.2 against this defense.
Suns score 110.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.9 against this defense.
Doncic: 36.4 pts · 7.3 reb · 7.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 30.7 · 7.4 · 5.9.
Reaves: 24.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.1 · 3.6 · 3.9.
Booker: 26.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.7 · 2.7 · 4.3.
Brooks: 14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.1 · 3.7 · 1.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Lakers win 62% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Devin Booker25+ pts + reb + ast73%of sims90Our Rating
- Austin Reaves1+ threes88%of sims88Our Rating
- Austin Reaves20+ pts + reb + ast84%of sims88Our Rating
- Luka Doncic5+ reb79%of sims88Our Rating
- Collin Gillespie1+ threes85%of sims88Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.