Lakers vs Hawks prediction
Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks, Monday, November 9, 2026 · State Farm Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Lakers 122, Hawks 118.
Final: LAL 124–114. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Lakers 122, Hawks 118 (the Lakers won 50% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Lakers won 50% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Luka Doncic Lakers 47 pts · 8 reb · 9 ast
- Walker Kessler Lakers 21 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Hawks 24 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 22 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 41 | 26 | 30 | 25 | 122 |
| ATL | 22 | 35 | 31 | 30 | 118 |
Top scorers: Luka Doncic 47, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24, Jalen Johnson 22, Walker Kessler 21, CJ McCollum 15, Aaron Wiggins 12
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 38 | 47 | 8 | 9 | 14-26 | 4-13 | 15-17 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Walker Kessler | 34 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 9-12 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 29 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake LaRavia | 27 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ziaire Williams | 23 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Collin Sexton | 29 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevon Looney | 25 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 15 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 8-13 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 34 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Dyson Daniels | 30 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CJ McCollum | 29 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 27 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 8-17 | 4-9 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 24 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingston Flemings | 24 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luguentz Dort | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Wilson | 15 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Lakers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Lakers: Doncic 32 · Kessler 29 · Mamukelashvili 24 · LaRavia 23 · Williams 23 · Thybulle 22 · Sexton 20 · Lovering 15 (projected minutes). Out: Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes
Hawks: Johnson 31 · Alexander-Walker 29 · Daniels 29 · Wiggins 29 · Okongwu 28 · Wilson 25 · McCollum 25 · Flemings 24 (projected minutes). Out: Keshon Gilbert
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Hawks get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Lakers allow 6th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Lakers finish 72% at the basket (the best; 27% of their shots). Hawks allow 67% there (12th of 30).
Ball security. Lakers turn it over on 15% of possessions (9th-most). Hawks force turnovers on 16% (4th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Doncic leads the Lakers in scoring in 88% of sims.
Kessler posts a double-double in 35%.
Doncic hits 5+ threes in 39%.
Alexander-Walker leads the Hawks in scoring in 35% of sims.
Johnson posts a double-double in 38%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 20%.
What swings it
When Hawks hit 16+ threes (34% of sims), they win 69%, up from 50%.
When Lakers hit 14+ threes (38% of sims), they win 68%, up from 50%.
When Lakers commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (37% of sims), they win 67%, up from 50%.
Reality check
Lakers score 118.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.8 against this defense.
Hawks score 117.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116 against this defense.
Doncic: 38 pts · 7.3 reb · 7.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 33.5 · 6.1 · 6.7.
Kessler: 13.5 pts · 11.1 reb · 1.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14 · 9.1 · 1.4.
Alexander-Walker: 21.8 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 2.8 · 2.3.
Johnson: 18.9 pts · 9.3 reb · 6.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 8.4 · 5.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Lakers win 50% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.