Lakers vs Bucks prediction
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Fiserv Forum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Lakers 116, Bucks 107.
Final: LAL 123–112. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Lakers 116, Bucks 107 (the Lakers won 70% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Lakers won 70% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Austin Reaves Lakers 20 pts · 5 reb · 7 ast
- Luka Doncic Lakers 20 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
- Cormac Ryan Bucks 19 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast
- Tyler Herro Bucks 14 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 23 | 26 | 34 | 33 | 116 |
| MIL | 26 | 24 | 23 | 34 | 107 |
Top scorers: Luka Doncic 20, Austin Reaves 20, Cormac Ryan 19, Pete Nance 14, Tyler Herro 14, Sandro Mamukelashvili 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 36 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 7-7 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Luka Doncic | 36 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8-18 | 2-11 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake LaRavia | 30 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Walker Kessler | 27 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 24 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 28 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Sexton | 23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Ziaire Williams | 17 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaden Hardy | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevon Looney | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rollins | 28 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Herro | 27 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 24 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Pete Nance | 23 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brayden Burries | 29 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Caris LeVert | 23 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Cormac Ryan | 21 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 7-13 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Kel'el Ware | 21 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Ousmane Dieng | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Bucks are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Lakers: Reaves 33 · Doncic 33 · Kessler 29 · Mamukelashvili 27 · LaRavia 23 · Thybulle 23 · Williams 23 · Sexton 22 (projected minutes). Out: Quentin Grimes
Bucks: Herro 28 · Jaquez 26 · Ryan 26 · Nance 26 · Kuzma 25 · Burries 23 · Rollins 23 · Dieng 21 (projected minutes). Out: Myles Turner
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Bucks turn it over on 15% of possessions (7th-most). Lakers force turnovers on 16% (2nd-most).
At the rim. Bucks finish 68% at the basket (8th-best; 27% of their shots). Lakers allow 69% there (2nd-highest).
From three. Bucks take 46% of their shots from deep (5th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.09 points a shot. Lakers give up 43% of shots from three (7th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Doncic leads the Lakers in scoring in 71% of sims.
Kessler posts a double-double in 42%.
Doncic hits 5+ threes in 40%.
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 33% of sims.
Herro hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Lakers (26% of sims), they win 50%, up from 30%.
When Bucks hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 47%, up from 30%.
When Lakers hit 16+ threes (33% of sims), they win 86%, up from 70%.
Reality check
Lakers score 121.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 119.1 against this defense.
Bucks score 106.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110 against this defense.
Doncic: 37.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 8.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 30.9 · 6.6 · 6.7.
Reaves: 24.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.6 · 3.2 · 3.9.
Herro: 19.5 pts · 5 reb · 4.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.3 · 4.3 · 3.7.
Jaquez: 16.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14 · 4.6 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Lakers win 70% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (LAL −14.5): the Lakers cover in 38%.
Total 230.5: over in 46%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Ryan Rollins4+ ast61%of sims47%books imply
- Ryan Rollins15+ pts + reb51%of sims41%books imply
- Ryan Rollins15+ pts + ast56%of sims46%books imply
- Ryan Rollins15+ pts + reb + ast71%of sims62%books imply
- Ryan Rollins5+ reb + ast83%of sims74%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.