Knicks vs Raptors prediction
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 111, Knicks 105.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jalen Brunson Knicks 19 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 18 pts · 20 reb · 3 ast
- RJ Barrett Raptors 28 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast
- Ja'Kobe Walter Raptors 18 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 20 | 25 | 32 | 28 | 105 |
| TOR | 31 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 111 |
Top scorers: RJ Barrett 28, Jalen Brunson 19, Karl-Anthony Towns 18, Ja'Kobe Walter 18, Collin Murray-Boyles 15, OG Anunoby 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | 35 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Mikal Bridges | 35 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| OG Anunoby | 34 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Jalen Brunson | 29 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 4-15 | 1-5 | 10-10 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 28 | 18 | 20 | 3 | 6-15 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Landry Shamet | 27 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4-13 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Miles McBride | 20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kolek | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jose Alvarado | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Drummond | 8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 34 | 28 | 6 | 5 | 10-24 | 3-8 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 32 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 24 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 22 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 22 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Kyle Anderson | 25 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Smith | 24 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamison Battle | 24 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Jamal Shead | 16 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alijah Martin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Graves | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Knicks: Brunson 32 · Anunoby 31 · Towns 30 · Hart 29 · Shamet 27 · Bridges 24 · McBride 21 · Alvarado 17 (projected minutes)
Raptors: Barrett 31 · Walter 28 · Quickley 28 · Shead 25 · Murray-Boyles 23 · Smith 23 · Poeltl 22 · Battle 20 (projected minutes). Out: Scottie Barnes, Kawhi Leonard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Raptors turn it over on 14% of possessions (6th-fewest). Knicks force turnovers on 14% (9th-fewest).
Second chances. Knicks grab 29% of their misses (3rd-most). Raptors let opponents get 27% (13th of 30).
In transition. Raptors get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Knicks allow 17th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 58% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 65%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 55% of sims.
Barrett posts a double-double in 21%.
Quickley hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Knicks hit 16+ threes (33% of sims), they win 69%, up from 49%.
When Knicks commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (28% of sims), they win 69%, up from 49%.
When Raptors hit 15+ threes (35% of sims), they win 69%, up from 51%.
Reality check
Knicks score 109.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.5 against this defense.
Raptors score 115.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.1 against this defense.
Brunson: 26.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.9 · 2.8 · 4.9.
Towns: 21.1 pts · 13.7 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19 · 12.4 · 2.9.
Barrett: 21.3 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.2 · 6.9 · 3.8.
Quickley: 15.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.5 · 3.7 · 5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 51% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Jalen Brunson25+ pts + reb + ast80%of sims91Our Rating
- Karl-Anthony Towns10+ pts91%of sims90Our Rating
- RJ Barrett10+ pts95%of sims89Our Rating
- RJ Barrett15+ pts + reb95%of sims89Our Rating
- Jalen Brunson1+ threes90%of sims89Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.