Knicks vs Pacers prediction
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, Friday, November 13, 2026 · Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Knicks 104, Pacers 100.
Final: IND 106–104. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Knicks 104, Pacers 100 (the Knicks won 63% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Knicks won 63% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- OG Anunoby Knicks 18 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 18 pts · 14 reb · 1 ast
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 23 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Andrew Nembhard Pacers 17 pts · 2 reb · 7 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 19 | 35 | 27 | 23 | 104 |
| IND | 30 | 16 | 27 | 27 | 100 |
Top scorers: Pascal Siakam 23, OG Anunoby 18, Karl-Anthony Towns 18, Andrew Nembhard 17, Ivica Zubac 16, Josh Hart 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 35 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4-19 | 0-5 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| OG Anunoby | 34 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 30 | 18 | 14 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Josh Hart | 29 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7-12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Mikal Bridges | 25 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 6-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Landry Shamet | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Miles McBride | 16 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jose Alvarado | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Andre Drummond | 16 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Kolek | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 33 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 10-18 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 32 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ivica Zubac | 29 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 25 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jarace Walker | 35 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Obi Toppin | 22 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quenton Jackson | 20 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Kobe Brown | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jay Huff | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Knicks: Brunson 31 · Anunoby 30 · Towns 30 · Hart 29 · Shamet 28 · Bridges 24 · McBride 21 · Alvarado 17 (projected minutes)
Pacers: Nembhard 31 · Siakam 31 · Nesmith 25 · Jackson 24 · Walker 23 · Oubre 23 · Toppin 23 · Brown 23 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Pacers grab 24% of their misses (the fewest). Knicks let opponents get 25% (2nd-fewest).
Ball security. Pacers turn it over on 14% of possessions (8th-fewest). Knicks force turnovers on 14% (7th-fewest).
From three. Pacers take 42% of their shots from deep (16th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.05 points a shot. Knicks give up 45% of shots from three (3rd-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 58% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 64%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 46% of sims.
Nembhard posts a double-double in 27%.
What swings it
When Pacers hit 14+ threes (35% of sims), they win 55%, up from 37%.
When Knicks hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 82%, up from 63%.
When Knicks commit fewer turnovers than Pacers (45% of sims), they win 76%, up from 63%.
Reality check
Knicks score 109.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.4 against this defense.
Pacers score 111.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 108.3 against this defense.
Brunson: 26.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.2 · 3 · 4.5.
Towns: 21 pts · 13.3 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.1 · 12.3 · 3.
Siakam: 23.3 pts · 6.9 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 6 · 4.1.
Nembhard: 16.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 8.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.8 · 1.8 · 8.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Knicks win 63% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NY −7.5): the Knicks cover in 45%.
Total 219.5: over in 54%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Jalen Brunson25+ pts + reb + ast81%of sims91Our Rating93%books imply
- Karl-Anthony Towns10+ pts91%of sims91Our Rating
- Jalen Brunson1+ threes90%of sims87Our Rating95%books imply
- Jalen Brunson25+ pts + ast71%of sims86Our Rating85%books imply
- OG Anunoby1+ threes85%of sims86Our Rating92%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.