Knicks vs Cavaliers prediction
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Rocket Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Knicks 115, Cavaliers 108.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Knicks won 50% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 24 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
- Jalen Brunson Knicks 21 pts · 1 reb · 6 ast
- James Harden Cavaliers 17 pts · 2 reb · 6 ast
- Jarrett Allen Cavaliers 16 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 36 | 35 | 18 | 26 | 115 |
| CLE | 24 | 24 | 29 | 31 | 108 |
Top scorers: Karl-Anthony Towns 24, Jalen Brunson 21, James Harden 17, Jarrett Allen 16, Jose Alvarado 15, Donovan Mitchell 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 37 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 8-16 | 1-4 | 7-7 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Josh Hart | 35 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Brunson | 33 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 8-16 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| OG Anunoby | 33 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4-13 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mikal Bridges | 26 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Miles McBride | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Landry Shamet | 18 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jose Alvarado | 17 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Drummond | 16 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Kolek | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 36 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| James Harden | 31 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 8-8 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Peyton Watson | 31 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Jarrett Allen | 28 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Mobley | 26 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sam Merrill | 25 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Meleek Thomas | 20 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Hezonja | 18 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Bryant | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Cavaliers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Knicks: Brunson 32 · Anunoby 30 · Hart 29 · Towns 29 · Shamet 26 · Bridges 26 · McBride 20 · Drummond 18 (projected minutes)
Cavaliers: Harden 31 · Mitchell 31 · Mobley 30 · Merrill 27 · Allen 24 · Watson 24 · Thomas 23 · Hezonja 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jaylon Tyson
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Knicks finish 65% at the basket (5th-worst; 30% of their shots). Cavaliers allow 64% there (4th-lowest).
From three. Cavaliers take 45% of their shots from deep (9th-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Knicks give up 45% of shots from three (2nd-most).
Ball security. Knicks turn it over on 14% of possessions (10th-fewest). Cavaliers force turnovers on 14% (4th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 57% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 59%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 13%.
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 36% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 23%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Cavaliers hit 16+ threes (31% of sims), they win 72%, up from 50%.
When Knicks hit 17+ threes (29% of sims), they win 72%, up from 50%.
When Knicks commit fewer turnovers than Cavaliers (43% of sims), they win 65%, up from 50%.
Reality check
Knicks score 111.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.4 against this defense.
Cavaliers score 119.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.2 against this defense.
Brunson: 25.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.7 · 2.4 · 5.3.
Towns: 19.8 pts · 12.8 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 12 · 3.2.
Mitchell: 23.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.7 · 4.3 · 5.4.
Harden: 18.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.4 · 3.7 · 5.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Knicks win 50% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.