Knicks vs Bulls prediction
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · United Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Knicks 117, Bulls 115.
Final: NY 133–127. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Knicks 117, Bulls 115 (the Knicks won 57% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Knicks won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Karl-Anthony Towns Knicks 24 pts · 18 reb · 4 ast
- Jalen Brunson Knicks 21 pts · 1 reb · 8 ast
- Matas Buzelis Bulls 21 pts · 9 reb · 2 ast
- Norman Powell Bulls 20 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 28 | 31 | 32 | 26 | 117 |
| CHI | 38 | 25 | 32 | 20 | 115 |
Top scorers: Karl-Anthony Towns 24, Jalen Brunson 21, Matas Buzelis 21, Norman Powell 20, Caleb Wilson 17, OG Anunoby 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 37 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 8-27 | 2-9 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Josh Hart | 32 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OG Anunoby | 30 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 29 | 24 | 18 | 4 | 9-16 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Mikal Bridges | 27 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles McBride | 24 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Clarkson | 23 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Landry Shamet | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Andre Drummond | 12 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Kolek | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Buzelis | 33 | 21 | 9 | 2 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Caleb Wilson | 29 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 6-19 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Jalen Smith | 26 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Jones | 25 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Giddey | 20 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaac Okoro | 31 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Leonard Miller | 28 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 6-15 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Norman Powell | 24 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 7-12 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Zach Collins | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Knicks are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Knicks: Brunson 36 · Anunoby 34 · Hart 32 · Bridges 31 · Towns 30 · Shamet 23 · McBride 19 · Drummond 17 (projected minutes). Out: Jose Alvarado
Bulls: Wilson 34 · Giddey 31 · Buzelis 29 · Miller 28 · Powell 27 · Okoro 24 · Jones 23 · Smith 22 (projected minutes). Out: Patrick Williams, Nic Claxton
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Bulls finish 64% at the basket (2nd-worst; 35% of their shots). Knicks allow 65% there (6th-lowest).
From three. Bulls take 45% of their shots from deep (8th-most in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Knicks give up 45% of shots from three (3rd-most).
Second chances. Bulls grab 26% of their misses (20th of 30). Knicks let opponents get 26% (2nd-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Brunson leads the Knicks in scoring in 56% of sims.
Towns posts a double-double in 64%.
Brunson hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Wilson leads the Bulls in scoring in 40% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 38%.
Wilson hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Bulls hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 61%, up from 43%.
When Knicks hit 16+ threes (33% of sims), they win 76%, up from 57%.
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than Knicks (39% of sims), they win 58%, up from 43%.
Reality check
Knicks score 111.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.4 against this defense.
Bulls score 116.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.4 against this defense.
Brunson: 24.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 7.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.4 · 2.9 · 6.7.
Towns: 20 pts · 12 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.3 · 12.3 · 3.3.
Wilson: 21 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 4. In the sims: 20 · 6.4 · 1.4.
Powell: 18 pts · 3 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.4 · 2.7 · 1.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Knicks win 57% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NY −6.5): the Knicks cover in 43%.
Total 232.5: over in 44%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Tre Jones8+ pts80%of sims62%books imply
- Tre Jones10+ pts + ast87%of sims72%books imply
- Leonard Miller11+ pts60%of sims46%books imply
- Andre Drummond8+ reb51%of sims37%books imply
- Josh Giddey6+ ast95%of sims82%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.