Kings vs Spurs prediction
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · Frost Bank Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 122, Kings 107.
Final: SA 130–103. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Spurs 122, Kings 107 (the Spurs won 79% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 79% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 23 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
- Precious Achiuwa Kings 19 pts · 11 reb · 1 ast
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 30 pts · 9 reb · 1 ast
- Devin Vassell Spurs 18 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 24 | 32 | 22 | 29 | 107 |
| SA | 35 | 31 | 25 | 31 | 122 |
Top scorers: Victor Wembanyama 30, Darius Acuff Jr. 23, Precious Achiuwa 19, Devin Vassell 18, Daeqwon Plowden 18, Stephon Castle 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | 37 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 34 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 9-20 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 28 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 8-14 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach LaVine | 27 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Nique Clifford | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 31 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 6-9 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Malik Monk | 30 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leaky Black | 28 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Vassell | 36 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 7-17 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Castle | 36 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 2-12 | 0-4 | 12-14 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 31 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Julian Champagnie | 27 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 23 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 12-16 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Dylan Harper | 24 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keldon Johnson | 22 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kornet | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Barnes | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Kings: Acuff 36 · Clifford 30 · Achiuwa 30 · LaVine 29 · Sabonis 29 · Plowden 26 · Hunter 23 · Monk 20 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell
Spurs: Vassell 31 · Castle 31 · Fox 30 · Wembanyama 29 · Champagnie 27 · Harper 26 · Johnson 24 · Kornet 19 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Kings take 35% of their shots from deep (the fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Spurs give up 40% of shots from three (6th-fewest).
Ball security. Spurs turn it over on 14% of possessions (3rd-fewest). Kings force turnovers on 14% (9th-fewest).
Second chances. Kings grab 27% of their misses (15th of 30). Spurs let opponents get 25% (2nd-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 53% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 47%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 54% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 61%.
What swings it
When Kings hit 13+ threes (36% of sims), they win 35%, up from 21%.
When Kings commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (41% of sims), they win 32%, up from 21%.
When Spurs hit 15+ threes (32% of sims), they win 90%, up from 79%.
Reality check
Kings score 111.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 108.3 against this defense.
Spurs score 123.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121.7 against this defense.
Acuff: 22.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 4.7 ast over his last 3. In the sims: 23.1 · 2.6 · 3.6.
LaVine: 19.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 2.2 · 2.4.
Wembanyama: 26.8 pts · 13 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.3 · 11.3 · 2.8.
Castle: 18.3 pts · 6.9 reb · 8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 6.1 · 6.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 79% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Keldon Johnson11+ pts73%of sims54%books imply
- Precious Achiuwa13+ pts54%of sims39%books imply
- Keldon Johnson15+ pts + reb72%of sims59%books imply
- Precious Achiuwa20+ pts + reb56%of sims48%books imply
- Darius Acuff Jr.22+ pts55%of sims47%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.