Jazz vs Timberwolves prediction
Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Target Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Timberwolves 126, Jazz 115.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Timberwolves won 75% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Keyonte George Jazz 24 pts · 1 reb · 4 ast
- Lauri Markkanen Jazz 18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- LaMelo Ball Timberwolves 24 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Ayo Dosunmu Timberwolves 22 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 41 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 115 |
| MIN | 34 | 31 | 28 | 33 | 126 |
Top scorers: Keyonte George 24, LaMelo Ball 24, Ayo Dosunmu 22, Terrence Shannon Jr. 19, Cody Williams 19, Lauri Markkanen 18
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 35 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 9-15 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Ace Bailey | 33 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 5-13 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darryn Peterson | 31 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 22 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 19 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 16 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Collier | 14 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Mo Bamba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Okogie | 12 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 36 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 8-16 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 31 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 8-15 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rudy Gobert | 29 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| LaMelo Ball | 25 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 8-19 | 3-11 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Cody Williams | 34 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 8-16 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 19 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 6-7 | 1-2 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joan Beringer | 17 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Lyles | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bones Hyland | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Jazz: Bailey 28 · Peterson 28 · George 28 · Markkanen 27 · Hayes 23 · Collier 21 · Sensabaugh 20 · Mykhailiuk 19 (projected minutes). Out: Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Timberwolves: McDaniels 30 · Dosunmu 29 · Kuminga 28 · Gobert 28 · Ball 26 · Shannon 25 · Williams 22 · Beringer 22 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Jazz take 41% of their shots from deep (19th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.01 points a shot. Timberwolves give up 39% of shots from three (the fewest).
At the rim. Jazz finish 66% at the basket (10th-worst; 26% of their shots). Timberwolves allow 64% there (5th-lowest) and block shots 10% more often than average.
Ball security. Jazz turn it over on 15% of possessions (5th-most). Timberwolves force turnovers on 15% (10th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
George leads the Jazz in scoring in 30% of sims.
Markkanen hits 5+ threes in 8%.
McDaniels leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 22% of sims.
Gobert posts a double-double in 33%.
Ball hits 5+ threes in 20%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 13+ threes (38% of sims), they win 41%, up from 25%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Timberwolves (33% of sims), they win 40%, up from 25%.
When Timberwolves hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 88%, up from 75%.
Reality check
Jazz score 112.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.2 against this defense.
Timberwolves score 120.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121.3 against this defense.
George: 20.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 5.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17 · 2.8 · 5.4.
Markkanen: 19.7 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 5.3 · 1.7.
Ball: 18.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.2 · 3.3 · 5.3.
Dosunmu: 17.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 4.1 · 3.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Timberwolves win 75% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (MIN −11.5): the Timberwolves cover in 49%.
Total 223.5: over in 66%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.