Jazz vs Rockets prediction

How it played out: quarter by quarter

Top scorers: Kevin Durant 28, Darryn Peterson 23, Amen Thompson 21, Keyonte George 21, Jabari Smith Jr. 17, Fred VanVleet 15

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).

2. Who's in the sim

   Jazz: George 29 · Peterson 29 · Bailey 29 · Hayes 24 · Okogie 20 · Green 19 · Mykhailiuk 17 · Collier 17 (projected minutes). Out: Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.

   Rockets: Smith 33 · Sengun 32 · Durant 32 · Thompson 31 · VanVleet 28 · Eason 27 · Sheppard 23 · Tshiebwe 16 (projected minutes). Out: Marcus Smart, Steven Adams

3. What's mapped in

   • Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
   • Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
   • Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
   • Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
   • Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.

4. What decides it

   At the rim. Rockets finish 68% at the basket (6th-best; 28% of their shots). Jazz allow 68% there (5th-highest).

   In transition. Rockets get out in transition 3rd-fewest in the NBA. Jazz allow 17th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   George leads the Jazz in scoring in 42% of sims.

   Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 32% of sims.

   Sengun posts a double-double in 33%.

   Sheppard hits 5+ threes in 11%.

6. What swings it

   When Jazz hit 13+ threes (31% of sims), they win 44%, up from 28%.

   When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Rockets (38% of sims), they win 43%, up from 28%.

   When Rockets hit 14+ threes (30% of sims), they win 87%, up from 72%.

7. Reality check

   Jazz score 111.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.9 against this defense.

   Rockets score 117.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.2 against this defense.

   George: 19.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.7 · 3.5 · 5.4.

   Peterson: 16.3 pts · 4 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.6 · 3.2 · 3.2.

   Durant: 20.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 5.3 · 3.5.

   Sengun: 20.1 pts · 9.3 reb · 7.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.9 · 7.9 · 5.9.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Rockets win 72% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (HOU −15.5): the Rockets cover in 35%.

   Total 221.5: over in 57%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Reed Sheppard1+ threes
     89%of sims
     94Our Rating
     93%books imply
   • Jabari Smith Jr.5+ reb + ast
     80%of sims
     92Our Rating
     95%books imply
   • Amen Thompson20+ pts + reb + ast
     69%of sims
     91Our Rating
     88%books imply
   • Kevin Durant20+ pts + reb
     73%of sims
     91Our Rating
     88%books imply
   • Kevin Durant20+ pts + ast
     66%of sims
     91Our Rating
     83%books imply