Jazz vs Pelicans prediction
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Smoothie King Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pelicans 126, Jazz 114.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pelicans won 65% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Lauri Markkanen Jazz 21 pts · 8 reb · 1 ast
- Isaiah Collier Jazz 20 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Jeremiah Fears Pelicans 30 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
- Zion Williamson Pelicans 15 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 38 | 34 | 16 | 26 | 114 |
| NO | 30 | 39 | 33 | 24 | 126 |
Top scorers: Jeremiah Fears 30, Lauri Markkanen 21, Isaiah Collier 20, Keyonte George 17, Zion Williamson 15, Bennedict Mathurin 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 36 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 4-14 | 2-10 | 7-10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ace Bailey | 30 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Darryn Peterson | 30 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2-12 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 29 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 7-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 27 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 6-11 | 4-6 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 22 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Collier | 20 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 9-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 15 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Mo Bamba | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears | 36 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 11-18 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Trey Murphy III | 34 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dejounte Murray | 31 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Zion Williamson | 30 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Julian Reese | 27 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Saddiq Bey | 28 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Derik Queen | 25 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 24 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Trendon Watford | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Jazz: Bailey 30 · Peterson 28 · George 27 · Hayes 27 · Markkanen 26 · Collier 24 · Sensabaugh 24 · Filipowski 20 (projected minutes). Out: Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Pelicans: Murphy 32 · Queen 32 · Fears 29 · Williamson 29 · Murray 29 · Bey 27 · Reese 27 · Mathurin 24 (projected minutes). Out: Yves Missi, Jordan Poole
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Pelicans get out in transition 5th-most in the NBA. Jazz allow 4th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Jazz turn it over on 15% of possessions (6th-most). Pelicans force turnovers on 15% (19th of 30).
Second chances. Pelicans grab 26% of their misses (16th of 30). Jazz let opponents get 26% (5th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
George leads the Jazz in scoring in 25% of sims.
Collier posts a double-double in 15%.
Fears leads the Pelicans in scoring in 27% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 31%.
Murphy hits 5+ threes in 9%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 14+ threes (32% of sims), they win 54%, up from 35%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Pelicans (36% of sims), they win 51%, up from 35%.
When Pelicans hit 11+ threes (34% of sims), they win 79%, up from 65%.
Reality check
Jazz score 115.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.4 against this defense.
Pelicans score 117.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121.8 against this defense.
George: 22 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.1 · 2.4 · 5.6.
Markkanen: 20.1 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.5 · 5 · 1.6.
Fears: 21.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 3.9 · 3.7.
Williamson: 19.2 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.8 · 4 · 2.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pelicans win 65% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.