Jazz vs Mavericks prediction
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, Friday, November 6, 2026 · American Airlines Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Mavericks 117, Jazz 112.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Mavericks won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Brice Sensabaugh Jazz 21 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- Lauri Markkanen Jazz 18 pts · 7 reb · 3 ast
- Cooper Flagg Mavericks 28 pts · 7 reb · 6 ast
- Kyrie Irving Mavericks 21 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 27 | 25 | 33 | 27 | 112 |
| DAL | 25 | 27 | 27 | 38 | 117 |
Top scorers: Cooper Flagg 28, Brice Sensabaugh 21, Kyrie Irving 21, Lauri Markkanen 18, Isaiah Collier 15, Kyle Filipowski 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | 32 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Keyonte George | 31 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3-14 | 0-6 | 3-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 29 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Darryn Peterson | 26 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mo Bamba | 23 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 21 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 19 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 8-17 | 3-10 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 18 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Collier | 16 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Josh Okogie | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 34 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cooper Flagg | 30 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 11-19 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Naji Marshall | 28 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Gafford | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Kyrie Irving | 23 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 7-16 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Moussa Cisse | 33 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 24 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 16 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 14 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Martin | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Sasser | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Jazz: Bailey 29 · Peterson 29 · George 29 · Markkanen 27 · Hayes 25 · Sensabaugh 21 · Collier 21 · Filipowski 19 (projected minutes). Out: Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Mavericks: Washington 31 · Flagg 30 · Irving 28 · Marshall 27 · Risacher 25 · Gafford 21 · Clayton 21 · Martin 20 (projected minutes). Out: Santi Aldama, Max Christie, Dereck Lively II
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Jazz take 41% of their shots from deep (19th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.01 points a shot. Mavericks give up 40% of shots from three (3rd-fewest).
In transition. Jazz get out in transition 14th of 30 in the NBA. Mavericks allow the most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Jazz grab 27% of their misses (14th of 30). Mavericks let opponents get 28% (3rd-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
George leads the Jazz in scoring in 31% of sims.
Flagg leads the Mavericks in scoring in 46% of sims.
Flagg posts a double-double in 20%.
Irving hits 5+ threes in 18%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 14+ threes (28% of sims), they win 60%, up from 40%.
When Mavericks hit 13+ threes (29% of sims), they win 78%, up from 60%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Mavericks (40% of sims), they win 56%, up from 40%.
Reality check
Jazz score 113.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.6 against this defense.
Mavericks score 115.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.6 against this defense.
George: 21.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18 · 2.8 · 5.4.
Markkanen: 19.2 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.1 · 5.3 · 1.9.
Flagg: 24.5 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.8 · 5.8 · 5.6.
Irving: 22.7 pts · 4 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 6. In the sims: 19.5 · 3.4 · 3.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Mavericks win 60% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.