Hornets vs Suns prediction
Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, Thursday, November 12, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hornets 112, Suns 110.
Final: PHX 101–96. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Hornets 112, Suns 110 (the Hornets won 52% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hornets won 52% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Grayson Allen Hornets 26 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- Coby White Hornets 23 pts · 0 reb · 4 ast
- Miles Bridges Suns 21 pts · 13 reb · 0 ast
- Jalen Green Suns 19 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 37 | 28 | 20 | 27 | 112 |
| PHX | 33 | 25 | 31 | 21 | 110 |
Top scorers: Grayson Allen 26, Coby White 23, Miles Bridges 21, Jalen Green 19, Naz Reid 18, Devin Booker 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Allen | 35 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 9-14 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Moussa Diabate | 27 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Naz Reid | 23 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 7-15 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sion James | 22 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby White | 20 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 8-16 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Royce O'Neale | 27 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Williams | 19 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 17 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 16 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 15 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam McNeeley | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Anderson | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges | 34 | 21 | 13 | 0 | 10-16 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Devin Booker | 33 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6-17 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dillon Brooks | 29 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4-14 | 0-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Khaman Maluach | 23 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jalen Green | 20 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 7-14 | 3-9 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Collin Gillespie | 30 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kennard | 19 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 18 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryan Dunn | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 16 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 99 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Hornets: Reid 28 · Diabate 27 · Allen 26 · James 24 · Williams 21 · O'Neale 20 · Kalkbrenner 20 · White 19 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Dennis Schroder
Suns: Booker 32 · Brooks 28 · Bridges 28 · Gillespie 26 · Green 25 · Ighodaro 22 · Goodwin 22 · Dunn 21 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams, Pat Spencer
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Hornets grab 30% of their misses (2nd-most). Suns let opponents get 29% (the most).
Ball security. Hornets turn it over on 16% of possessions (the most). Suns force turnovers on 15% (5th-most).
In transition. Hornets get out in transition 5th-fewest in the NBA. Suns allow 8th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Reid leads the Hornets in scoring in 47% of sims.
Reid posts a double-double in 24%.
Reid hits 5+ threes in 18%.
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 60% of sims.
What swings it
When Suns hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 68%, up from 48%.
When Hornets hit 17+ threes (31% of sims), they win 75%, up from 52%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Suns (25% of sims), they win 73%, up from 52%.
Reality check
Hornets score 101.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.8 against this defense.
Suns score 111.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.7 against this defense.
Reid: 17.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 2.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 7.3 · 2.1.
Allen: 14.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.6 · 2.7 · 3.7.
Booker: 26.6 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.2 · 2.8 · 4.5.
Brooks: 15.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.6 · 3.5 · 1.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hornets win 52% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Dillon Brooks1+ threes82%of sims89Our Rating86%books imply
- Grayson Allen1+ threes91%of sims88Our Rating
- Devin Booker15+ pts86%of sims88Our Rating94%books imply
- Devin Booker25+ pts + reb + ast73%of sims88Our Rating88%books imply
- Devin Booker5+ reb + ast82%of sims88Our Rating94%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.