Hornets vs Pistons prediction
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Little Caesars Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pistons 115, Hornets 113.
Final: DET 97–89. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pistons 115, Hornets 113 (the Pistons won 59% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pistons won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Brandon Miller Hornets 20 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
- Naz Reid Hornets 16 pts · 9 reb · 3 ast
- Daniss Jenkins Pistons 22 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
- John Collins Pistons 19 pts · 7 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 21 | 21 | 36 | 35 | 113 |
| DET | 28 | 34 | 28 | 25 | 115 |
Top scorers: Daniss Jenkins 22, Brandon Miller 20, John Collins 19, Naz Reid 16, Grayson Allen 16, Cade Cunningham 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller | 31 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 6-14 | 3-10 | 5-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Naz Reid | 31 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 5-14 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Moussa Diabate | 27 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sion James | 23 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dennis Schroder | 12 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grayson Allen | 28 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 6-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Royce O'Neale | 23 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 16 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Hannes Steinbach | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 14 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Liam McNeeley | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 34 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Duncan Robinson | 34 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3-11 | 1-8 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Collins | 29 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 8-11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ausar Thompson | 26 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Elijah Harkless | 23 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 29 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 8-17 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Taurean Prince | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Huerter | 17 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Paul Reed | 16 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Green | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 104).
Pistons are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Hornets: Miller 32 · Reid 28 · Diabate 27 · Schroder 24 · Allen 24 · James 23 · O'Neale 19 · Kalkbrenner 19 (projected minutes). Out: Kon Knueppel, Coby White, Grant Williams
Pistons: Harkless 28 · Cunningham 28 · Jenkins 28 · Robinson 28 · Prince 27 · Collins 27 · Thompson 26 · Huerter 23 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Joe
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Hornets take 48% of their shots from deep (2nd-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Pistons give up 43% of shots from three (8th-most).
Ball security. Hornets turn it over on 15% of possessions (2nd-most). Pistons force turnovers on 15% (9th-most).
At the rim. Hornets finish 66% at the basket (10th-worst; 27% of their shots). Pistons allow 64% there (4th-lowest) and block shots 25% more often than average.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Miller leads the Hornets in scoring in 45% of sims.
Miller hits 5+ threes in 20%.
Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring in 23% of sims.
Cunningham posts a double-double in 26%.
Robinson hits 5+ threes in 18%.
What swings it
When Hornets hit 15+ threes (35% of sims), they win 60%, up from 41%.
When Pistons hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 77%, up from 59%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Pistons (36% of sims), they win 58%, up from 41%.
Reality check
Hornets score 112.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110 against this defense.
Pistons score 118.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114 against this defense.
Miller: 20.2 pts · 4 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.4 · 3.3 · 2.8.
Reid: 15.1 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.7 · 6.1 · 1.8.
Cunningham: 16.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 9.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.6 · 4.8 · 7.4.
Robinson: 15.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.7 · 2.3 · 2.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pistons win 59% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.