Hornets vs Nets prediction
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Barclays Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hornets 122, Nets 107.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hornets won 60% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Naz Reid Hornets 24 pts · 9 reb · 1 ast
- Coby White Hornets 21 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
- Julius Randle Nets 21 pts · 2 reb · 5 ast
- Michael Porter Jr. Nets 17 pts · 3 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 20 | 31 | 32 | 39 | 122 |
| BKN | 31 | 26 | 28 | 22 | 107 |
Top scorers: Naz Reid 24, Coby White 21, Julius Randle 21, Brandon Miller 20, Michael Porter Jr. 17, Dennis Schroder 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | 34 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 9-20 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Moussa Diabate | 31 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Brandon Miller | 29 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 8-22 | 4-14 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Schroder | 25 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Sion James | 25 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grayson Allen | 24 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 7-7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Royce O'Neale | 20 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Coby White | 18 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| PJ Hall | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Powell | 34 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Julius Randle | 33 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 7-13 | 4-6 | 3-6 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 26 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 25 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Traore | 20 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Danny Wolf | 28 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chaney Johnson | 23 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Minott | 21 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 19 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 3-11 | 0-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Saraf | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Hornets: Miller 31 · Allen 27 · Diabate 27 · Reid 27 · Schroder 25 · James 22 · White 21 · O'Neale 20 (projected minutes). Out: Kon Knueppel, Grant Williams
Nets: Randle 31 · Porter 29 · Saraf 27 · Brown 25 · Powell 24 · Minott 22 · Traore 21 · Johnson 20 (projected minutes). Out: Egor Demin
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Nets grab 26% of their misses (5th-fewest). Hornets let opponents get 25% (2nd-fewest).
At the rim. Nets finish 64% at the basket (the worst; 30% of their shots). Hornets allow 66% there (19th of 30).
Ball security. Hornets turn it over on 16% of possessions (2nd-most). Nets force turnovers on 15% (20th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Miller leads the Hornets in scoring in 49% of sims.
Reid posts a double-double in 16%.
Miller hits 5+ threes in 25%.
Porter leads the Nets in scoring in 36% of sims.
Porter hits 5+ threes in 15%.
What swings it
When Nets hit 14+ threes (35% of sims), they win 60%, up from 40%.
When Hornets hit 16+ threes (35% of sims), they win 79%, up from 60%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Nets (40% of sims), they win 76%, up from 60%.
Reality check
Hornets score 106.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.9 against this defense.
Nets score 105.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.2 against this defense.
Miller: 21.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.2 · 4.4 · 2.8.
White: 16.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.1 · 3.2 · 2.5.
Porter: 21.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.2 · 6.1 · 1.6.
Randle: 21.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.9 · 5.7 · 4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hornets win 60% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.