Hornets vs Clippers prediction
Charlotte Hornets at LA Clippers, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Intuit Dome. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Clippers 110, Hornets 103.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Clippers won 50% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Brandon Miller Hornets 26 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- Coby White Hornets 21 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast
- Darius Garland Clippers 28 pts · 1 reb · 5 ast
- Brook Lopez Clippers 18 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 22 | 22 | 29 | 30 | 103 |
| LAC | 27 | 25 | 30 | 28 | 110 |
Top scorers: Darius Garland 28, Brandon Miller 26, Coby White 21, Brook Lopez 18, Naz Reid 17, Derrick Jones Jr. 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller | 31 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 10-26 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Naz Reid | 30 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 6-15 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Moussa Diabate | 28 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Sion James | 27 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Coby White | 16 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 6-10 | 5-9 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grayson Allen | 23 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| PJ Hall | 20 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Grant Williams | 19 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 19 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Royce O'Neale | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Hachimura | 34 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 33 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 6-14 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Kris Dunn | 32 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Darius Garland | 28 | 28 | 1 | 5 | 9-15 | 3-5 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Brook Lopez | 21 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Kobe Sanders | 28 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Max Strus | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Wagler | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gradey Dick | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Hornets: Miller 29 · Allen 28 · Reid 28 · Diabate 27 · James 25 · Williams 21 · O'Neale 20 · Kalkbrenner 20 (projected minutes). Out: Kon Knueppel, Dennis Schroder
Clippers: Garland 31 · Hachimura 28 · Jones 27 · Dunn 26 · Sanders 26 · Strus 26 · Wagler 25 · Lopez 23 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Bradley Beal
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Clippers grab 25% of their misses (6th-fewest). Hornets let opponents get 25% (the fewest).
Ball security. Hornets turn it over on 16% of possessions (the most). Clippers force turnovers on 15% (9th-most).
In transition. Hornets get out in transition 6th-fewest in the NBA. Clippers allow 18th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Miller leads the Hornets in scoring in 47% of sims.
Reid posts a double-double in 25%.
Miller hits 5+ threes in 22%.
Garland leads the Clippers in scoring in 42% of sims.
Garland hits 5+ threes in 11%.
What swings it
When Hornets hit 17+ threes (31% of sims), they win 72%, up from 50%.
When Clippers hit 17+ threes (30% of sims), they win 73%, up from 50%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Clippers (30% of sims), they win 67%, up from 50%.
Reality check
Hornets score 99.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.2 against this defense.
Clippers score 111.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.2 against this defense.
Miller: 20.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.4 · 4 · 2.6.
Reid: 17.3 pts · 8.5 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.1 · 7.4 · 2.3.
Garland: 20.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19 · 1.8 · 6.3.
Hachimura: 14.1 pts · 6 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.4 · 5.8 · 1.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Clippers win 50% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Grayson Allen1+ threes90%of sims90Our Rating
- Darius Garland10+ pts91%of sims88Our Rating
- Darius Garland1+ threes90%of sims88Our Rating
- Ryan Kalkbrenner3+ reb74%of sims87Our Rating
- Moussa Diabate5+ reb77%of sims86Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.