Heat vs Warriors prediction
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, Thursday, November 5, 2026 · Chase Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Warriors 122, Heat 110.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Warriors won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 30 pts · 10 reb · 3 ast
- Andrew Wiggins Heat 16 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
- Stephen Curry Warriors 28 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Yaxel Lendeborg Warriors 27 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 27 | 32 | 22 | 29 | 110 |
| GS | 39 | 22 | 30 | 31 | 122 |
Top scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo 30, Stephen Curry 28, Yaxel Lendeborg 27, Brandin Podziemski 21, Brandon Williams 17, Andrew Wiggins 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 33 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 12-25 | 1-4 | 5-7 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Bam Adebayo | 29 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Davion Mitchell | 27 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 23 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 7-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Klay Thompson | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pelle Larsson | 35 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 2-10 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Nick Richards | 27 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bobby Portis | 22 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 10-16 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Brandin Podziemski | 32 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 8-14 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Curry | 29 | 28 | 2 | 4 | 10-16 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Draymond Green | 28 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Gui Santos | 18 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 27 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon Williams | 25 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 6-14 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Georges Niang | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Charles Bassey | 13 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Al Horford | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Heat: Larsson 31 · Mitchell 30 · Adebayo 30 · Antetokounmpo 28 · Portis 26 · Wiggins 25 · Thompson 20 · Hardaway 19 (projected minutes)
Warriors: Lendeborg 30 · Podziemski 30 · Curry 26 · Green 25 · Melton 25 · Santos 23 · Horford 22 · Williams 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Heat get out in transition 3rd-most in the NBA. Warriors allow 6th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Warriors take 49% of their shots from deep (2nd-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Heat give up 43% of shots from three (9th-most).
At the rim. Heat finish 67% at the basket (16th of 30; 29% of their shots). Warriors allow 69% there (4th-highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 65% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 46%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Curry leads the Warriors in scoring in 40% of sims.
Lendeborg posts a double-double in 17%.
Curry hits 5+ threes in 28%.
What swings it
When Heat hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 65%, up from 47%.
When Warriors hit 17+ threes (38% of sims), they win 73%, up from 53%.
When Warriors commit fewer turnovers than Heat (44% of sims), they win 68%, up from 53%.
Reality check
Heat score 122.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.4 against this defense.
Warriors score 114.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.9 against this defense.
Antetokounmpo: 27.8 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 25.6 · 9.5 · 4.7.
Adebayo: 17 pts · 8.8 reb · 4.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.6 · 8 · 4.3.
Curry: 25.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.7 · 3.3 · 3.1.
Lendeborg: 21.5 pts · 7 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 8. In the sims: 18.6 · 6.5 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Warriors win 53% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.